After losing the first two games of their first-round series with the Dallas Mavericks at home, the LA Clippers became the first team to come back from a 2-0 series deficit as the Toronto Raptors did in the 2019 Eastern Conference Finals. Now, can they become the first team in NBA history to return twice in the same season after going 2-0 down to the Utah Jazz in the semifinals?
Although the task may seem less daunting as the Clippers are given the opportunity to tie the series on their home courts for Games 3 and 4, it has actually historically been a more challenging proposition. Since the playoffs expanded to 16 teams in 1983–84, teams that lost the first two games at home went 4–19 in a best-of-seven series (.174). The first two losing teams on the road are 14-200 (.065).
How can shear beat the odds again? Let's take a look at the potential factors that could help the Clippers gain the upper hand in the series ahead of Game 3 on Saturday (8:30 p.m. ET on ABC).
Pick a rotation
Depth was considered an advantage for the Clippers in the playoffs. Instead, first-year head coach Tyrone Lew probably has a lot of options, making it difficult to find the right people. Lew found a tight but workable rotation with Dallas towards the end of the series, introducing Nicolas Butum in a traditional center spot and using Terence Mann and Luke Kennard as his primary reserves.
Against the Jazz, Lew has unexpectedly reopened his rotation. Patrick Beverly, who played only 11 seconds combined in the last three games of the first round, and DeMarcus Cousins, who didn't play at all. Kennard continued to play a special role while Mann disappeared, playing less than 10 minutes total, and Rajon Rondo went from 28 minutes in Game 1 to DnP-CD in Game 2.
— Kevin Pelton (@kpelton) June 12, 2021
All told, Lew's rotation has been the third least consistent among playoff coaches in terms of the standard deviation of his players' minutes from game to game. The two teams ahead of the Clippers, the Los Angeles Lakers and Brooklyn Nets, had to adjust their rotation to deal with injuries from stars Anthony Davis and James Harden. The Clippers did not suffer the same blow, though they lost backup center Serge Ibaka to a back injury that required season-ending surgery on Thursday.
It's hard to understand Mann's seeming decadence, given the key role the two major Clippers won in the first round. They were plus-18 with him on the court in Game 3 in Dallas, a 10-point win, and plus-14 with Mann in 26 minutes during Game 7. Kennard gives the Clippers more spacing, and Beverly has better defensive matchups in it. Compared to the series against the Mavericks, but I'd still love to see Mann in a special role.
Close the shooting gap
From a statistical standpoint, Utah's two wins in this series have come in different fashions. Despite poor shooting (34% from 3-point range), the Jazz ground out Game 1, taking advantage of a rare edge in shot volume, thanks to his aggressive rebounding and sure-handed ball handling.
The Clippers shrugged off both of those issues in Game 2. Partly because he played center Cousins and Ivica Zubac in more minutes, he limited the Jazz to just two offensive rebounds and forced twice as many turnovers. Utah was able to overcome that Thursday with better shooting that has become a hallmark this season: 20-of-39 (51%) from 3-point range, while the Clippers made 30 out of their 30 attempts (37%). Did only 11.
Amazingly, the Clippers have generated more catch-and-shoot opportunities in this series than in Utah. Through the first two games, the Clippers have attempted 55 catch-and-shoot 3s, according to Second Spectrum Tracking, compared to 36 for the Jazz.
The 3-point difference in this series stems from two factors. First, the Clippers—who finished with the fourth-best 3-point percentage in NBA history—didn't drop catch-and-shoot 3s at their usual rate, which was only 34.5% so far compared to 42.5%. is. Regular season according to the second spectrum.
Second, Utah was unusually hot on pull-up 3-pointers in Game 2, carrying a theme from the first round. Spectrum per second, teams have scored 65 3-pointers against the Clippers that are not catch-and-shoots, the farthest and farthest of any playoff defense. The Denver Nuggets (54 who entered Friday's action) were the only other team allowed over 33. The Jazz made 16 of them in Game 2 alone. According to the ESPN Stats and Information Analysis of Second Spectrum Tracking, since camera tracking was introduced in 2013–14, this is the most of any game, regular season or playoff.
Consider the poet on Michelle
Lew's final adjustment to include Doncic in the first round was the transfer of former defensive player of the year Kawhi Leonard on him, largely after the Clippers fell 3–2 in the series, as It was noted by Seth Partnow of The Athletic. Now, the Clippers must debate when to make the same move against Mitchell, who has 82 points from 76 minutes in the series so far.
Naturally, the concern is how playing a stopper on defense has a physical effect on Leonard in addition to making up the Clippers' offense. Already, he looked low on the gas in the first two games of the series, with fewer points (44) than he did in Game 6 against the Mavericks (45).
The success of the Clippers' zone defense in the second half of Game 2 helped circumvent this question somewhat. The Jazz scored just 12 points per second on the spectrum, the zone's 18 properties. I expect Utah to be better prepared to attack the zone in Game 3, which means that Lew will have to be prepared to move on to the next plan. Keeping Leonard on Mitchell is not ideal, but given the difficulty of coming back from a 3-0 deficit, there may be no reason to conserve Leonard's energy.
Certainly, I would give the Clippers a better chance than the overall 6.4% winning percentage of the teams going 2-0 home. Many of those series were relatively disappointing first-round matchups rather than such competitive ones, where slightly more ESPN writers chose the Clippers than the Jazz. Considering the average shot-making by both teams, there's a good chance the Clippers would have won Game 2 and tied 1-1 at home and felt good about their approach.
Still, that's not the reality, and the Clippers now fear they've already missed their best chance of winning in Salt Lake City with only two more opportunities left and Mike Conley to return from his hamstring strain at some point. is likely to. Chain. The Clippers could win this series, but it could prove to be even more challenging than their previous comeback.