The NBA's conference semifinals are in full swing. The Milwaukee Bucks saved their postseason run with a nail-biting Game 3 victory over the Brooklyn Nets. Donovan Mitchell and the Utah Jazz put the LA Clippers in another 2-0 hole.
In Friday night's matchup, the Philadelphia 76ers and Atlanta Hawks wrestled for their series lead in Game 3, while the Phoenix Suns look to take a 3-0 lead over 2021 MVP Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets.
How much do the Nets need James Harden, who is still out of hamstring tightness? What's the most impressive part of the Sons' 2-0 series lead? Which player or adjustment will decide the Jazz-Clippers series? Which potential final matchup will deliver the funniest story?
Our panel of experts is answering some of the biggest playoff questions ahead of two big game 3s.
Fact or Fiction: The Nets should be the favorite to win the NBA title, even if James Harden doesn't play again this post season.
Tim McMahon: Fiction. Kevin Durant once again sounds like the best player in the world and Kyrie Irving is a proven championship-caliber sidekick, but my gut feeling is that the Nets will need Harden to come out of the 76ers and/or West. Nets GM Sean Marks clearly thought as much when he pulled the trigger on the pick-loaded deal to bring Harden to Brooklyn.
Kevin Pelton: Fiction. Harden's absence is putting pressure on other Brooklyn stars to play the big minute. After playing 44:35 in Game 1, Irving was on the court for 44:57 in Game 3. Durant played 40:06 and 42:52 in those two games respectively. It couldn't be more sustainable than three full rounds - especially considering his battle with injuries during the regular season.
Jorge Sedano: Facts. Despite all their lineup reshuffles, the Nets had a league-best offensive rating of 117.3 this season. Interestingly, when Durant and Irving were on court together without Harden, that number increased to 120.6. Couple that with the re-emergence of Blake Griffin and steady shooting from Joe Harris and it's not out of line to think they can win it all without Harden.
Brian Windhorst: It's the fact. But this is not a big deal. The Nets were originally a .500 team this season when Harden did not play. He has great talent and the players playing his part have been strong so far, but it's hard to bet on him.
Royce Young: Facts. The reason is very simple: even with many talented superstar players remaining in the latter season, Durant is in a class of his own. He's the best player he's playing right now, an absolute matchup nightmare that affects both ends of the floor. Harden or no harden, Durant is about to master the games efficiently.
What's been most impressive about the Sons' 2-0 lead over the Nuggets?
McMahon: Chris Paul is in complete control of the series so far, but he has dominated playoff series before, despite never progressing to the finals. How DeAndre Ayton would handle his matchup with MVP Nikola Jokic was the Sun's biggest question going into the series. Ayton, 22, has a lot more to offer than herself. He has averaged 17.5 points and 10.0 rebounds, shooting 65.2% from the floor in two wins. More importantly, according to the NBA Advanced Stats, Ayton has made life difficult on Jokic, who is 26 of 11 off the floor, with only four assists when Ayton has been his primary defender.
Sedano: It's Paul. In fact, there weren't many people who didn't realize they had been bitten by a snake again after being injured in the first round. He fought through it and got his form back to take a 2-0 lead over Denver. His Game 2 performance was excellent. His 17-point, 15-assist, zero-turnover night was the first playoff game with 15-plus points, 15-plus assists, and no turnover since 2014. The player who achieved this feat in 2014? Chris Paul. Before 2014, the last time this happened was in 2008... by Chris Paul.
Youth: The chivalry of the young Sun. Paul is a weighted blanket for the rest of the rooster, providing sun protection in harsh conditions. But as steadfast as he has been – 26 assists in a turnover is absurd – the rest of the Sons youth have played their part brilliantly. Ayten is ready for the challenge against Jokic. Michal Bridges and Cameron Johnson look comfortable in their roles. And Devin Booker appears to be made for any post-season moment.
Pelton: Ayton defending against Jokic. Despite the early glitch in Game 2, Ayton is matched minute for minute by MVP (Jokic has played four minutes with Ayton on the bench, according to NBA Advanced Stats) and deserves most of the credit for keeping Jokic in check. is. Scorer (23 PPG at 47.5% shooting) and Distributor (4.5 APG).
Windhorst: Depths of the Phoenix. Paul has been otherworldly during the Sun's five-match winning streak and has had an incredible 53-4 assists-to-turnover ratio over that period. But in both the matches of this series, the Sons have five players in double figure. Ayton is playing the best ball of his life, Cameron Payne is off the bench and the Jay Crowder/Bridge 3-and-D combo is perfect.
What's been the biggest surprise of the 76ers-Hawks so far?
McMahon: How impressive has Joel Embiid been, despite the meniscus torn in his right knee. This is impressive for averaging 39.5 points, 11.0 rebounds and 2.0 blocks in the conference semifinals under any circumstances. It's absolutely amazing to do so despite taking care of a knee injury that called into question Embiid's availability until just before the Game 1 starting lineup was announced. And he's doing it against one of the NBA's best defensive biggies in Atlanta's Clint Capella.
Windhorst: Despite a minor knee injury Embiid has been doing so well. The idea that he would play in Game 2, much less at 40, seemed wild a few days ago. That said, the way the Hawks played in the first half of Game 1, jumping for a huge lead, was pretty surprising and deserves special mention.
Young: Embiid. Obviously, it should come as no surprise that Embiid would play brilliantly in the playoff series. But in these circumstances, his health was the biggest question going into the series. It seemed plausible that he was going to try to play through a meniscus tear, but how limited he might be, or the challenges he might face, was an important story. Instead, after two games, the only question surrounding Embiid is, how on earth will the Hawks stop him?
Sedano: How poorly the Sixers bench has performed. Philly was a mid-of-the-pack bench scoring unit this season, but it has been downright bad this series. (And the numbers would have looked much worse if Shake Milton hadn't given the Sixers a massive boost in the second half of Game 2) All their bench players had negative plus-minus in Game 1 and zero points in the first half. Game 2 before Milton sets the tone. It is not a permanent recipe for success.
PELTOON: Aside from Atlanta Stealing Game 1 on the road, I'd say Kevin Huerter's performance off the bench. Huerter has made more than half his 3-pointers (6-of-11) and is a perfect 8-of-8 from inside the arc, a big reason the Hawks are with him on the court with a plus-12 and a minus-24. him on the bench through two games.
What will most determine the winner of the Jazz-Clippers?
McMahon: Can the Clippers figure out a way to placate Donovan Mitchell? LA has no chance in this series if Mitchell keeps scoring skillfully in the 30s or 40s. The Jazz aren't as dependent on Mitchell as the Maw Luka Doncic was—and Utah is a better defensive team than Dallas—so the Clippers aren't going to survive this series if they never find a permanent solution to the opponent's well-known. man.
Sedano: Michelle's success - or lack thereof - will determine who wins this series. How effective he is especially in pick and roll. For the Clippers to succeed, they would have to contain the perimeter with a combination of Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Nicholas Buttham or Terence Mann. Luke Kennard certainly helps him in the offense, but he was being targeted on defense by Mitchell. If Michelle is allowed to feast, Jazz will win the series.
Pelton: Ability to dribble. The assumption was that would be in favor of the Clippers, but I think Utah's ability to score self-made buckets is wildly low. In fact, the Jazz's 50.3% effective field goal percentage on shots with touch times greater than two seconds - sixth in the league during the regular season, tracking spectrum per second - is actually better than the Clippers' 49.4% points (11th). was. ) Playing against the Clippers' junk defense, Utah had just 15 assists on 40 field goals in Game 2, but got thanks in large part to Mitchell's build.
Windhorst: Jazz in the fourth quarter. They've made some gains (don't ask about last year) but, have they looked like a championship team in the fourth quarter during this six-game playoff winning streak. Games 3 and 4 in the Memphis series and Games 1 and 2 against the Clippers were wide open in the fourth and the Jazz's mix of active defense, great shooting and Mitchell has repeatedly achieved 50/50 games. This is championship stuff.
Young: George. The secret of Playoff P's story is that he is actually very similar to the regular Season P. George's entire history as a star player is the ability to reach a peak level, on par with the best in the world, but then follow up with a perplexing, wandering performance after two nights. The Clippers only need the best version of George four times, and if they can get it, they can beat the Jazz.
The final matchup with the best story is...
Young: Sons vs Hawks. While we've all gone beyond big-market handwriting, attention may shift to the reality that the league will have an opportunity to showcase two stars who could be the featured players for the next decade. Giving Trai Young and Booker a bigger platform could pay long-term dividends for the NBA. And I'm also a major sucker for overcoming a long title drought, or winning my first, and seeing Paul in the NBA Finals just feels long overdue.
Pelton: I like the homegrown core of Brooklyn's Big Three vs. Utah as a story, but I think the answer to the opportunity to see Durant vs. Leonard in a fight with both playing at a higher level would be Nets vs. Clippers. needed. Kawhi wasn't there yet in 2016 when Durant's Thunder upset Leonard's Spurs, and we were denied this matchup in the 2019 NBA Finals by Durant's injuries. It would be a fitting culmination for KD's incredible comeback.
Sedano: This is any series that includes Paul. The only thing missing from his resume is an appearance in the finals and later the championship. Especially, if the Nets were rivals. CP3 vs Kyrie? A dream point guard matchup. Not to mention potentially squaring off at Harden versus his old teammate. He and this young/fun group of Sons encounter a Nets team that looks like a juggler who should watch TV.
McMahon: Sons vs. Nets. Don't count on going to dinner between Paul and Harden games when they face each other in the finals after their two-year stint as Rockets teammates. Harden was not the only one in Houston who wanted to trade Paul and Picks for Russell Westbrook, but the deal could not be done until Harden insisted on it. Paul has proved beyond any reasonable doubt that this was a bad move, and upset the Sons on Harden's superteam would be the sweetest revenge. (Another story: Steve Nash and Mike D'Antoine are finally trying to win a title at the expense of the Sons.)
Windhorst: Sun vs Nets with Harden and Paul Healthy. Rockets can cry in the corner.