What do Mohamed Salah, Raheem Sterling, N'Golo Kante, Robert Lewandowski, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Jordan Henderson all have in common? They have reached the crucial moment in their contracts when they realize how important they really are to their clubs.
As my ESPN colleague Gabe Marcotti wrote this week, there are an array of star-studded talents, including Paul Pogba, Kylian Mbappe and Cristiano Ronaldo, who have gone from becoming free agents if they fail to agree to new contracts before July 12. In less than a month. 2022.
Speculation about the future of these players is likely to make headlines next year, but the two-year countdown has become the most important stage in football contracts; This occurs when the balance of power between the player and the club is divided equally. It becomes a staring contest, and one side has to wink. This is when at least one party has to show commitment; Otherwise, the message is clear that one or both parties have different plans.
"Determining what to do with players in the last two years of their contracts is now the biggest headache for all clubs," a senior club official told ESPN. "It's not about which players you sign - it's about who you want to keep and whether the financial figures stack up.
"If a player is 30 and has two years left on his contract, it's a nightmare for the club, especially if he's a big player, because you're either committed to a new deal that's 34 or 35 could go on and worry about what kind of value you'll get at the end of it, or you'll let him go and worry again about him embarrassing you at his new club.
"You don't want to let go of a player too early - just look at what Luis Suarez did for Atlético Madrid [winning La Liga] after leaving Barcelona last season - but then you can let an old player out for a big salary. Don't want you can't get rid of."
Liverpool, often held up as a model club when it comes to recruitment and contract management, have a remarkable 13 players in the last two years of their current deals, and they have some big issues to address. Those players include Salah, Henderson, Sadio Mane, Roberto Firmino, Fabinho, Virgil van Dijk, Nabi Keita and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain.
The likes of Keita and Oxlade-Chamberlain are unlikely to be handed new deals this summer due to their sporadic performances last season. Both could still be allowed to leave, with their transfer value this summer going to be much higher than in a year's time.
At 27, Fabinho is young enough to warrant a new contract due to his age and importance to Jurgen Klopp's team, but Salah, Mane and Firmino are all 29, Van Dijk is 30 and almost a Years later still has to play competitively. with a cruciate ligament injury, while Henderson, who has missed 15 games since February with a groin injury, is 31.
Salah, Mane, Firmino, van Dijk and Henderson have all been instrumental in Liverpool's recent successes, but the dilemma facing Klopp and sporting director Michael Edwards is deciding how long they will continue to contribute at that level.
Handing him all-new contracts exposes Liverpool to the problem of grouping aging players together on big deals. Their market value will also be much less. But if they fail to get a contract extension this summer, players could feel like their days are numbered.
Henderson's dismay has come to the fore this week, with reports suggesting that the club captain may leave if he is not offered a new contract. Perhaps it's a tactic on the part of the player to test the waters and gauge their intentions, but at 31 years old and with a poor fitness record over the past 12 months, Henderson is likely to be disappointed if he is just one. Hoping for a new deal. However Liverpool are also wary of Henderson following the path of Georginio Wijnaldum, who joined Paris Saint-Germain at the end of his deal this month.
Liverpool are not the only club aware of the dangers of players entering the last two years of their contracts.
Arsenal have nine players, including star striker Aubameyang. At 32, it would be surprising if Arsenal would even consider an extension to his deal, but can they afford to leave him unsteady and distracted by a reduced contract? Hector Bellerin, Bernd Leno, Granit Xaka and Willian are all in the same position. Youngster Emil Smith Rowe signed a new long-term deal on Thursday, so at least Arsenal have cemented their position there, but they have a lot more to explore over the next few months.
Sterling's position at Manchester City is an example of a player who has almost all of the best cards. The England forward is approaching his peak years and has seen his value and reputation rise after an impressive performance at Euro 2020, which saw him named in the tournament's squad after scoring three goals. He will only be 28 when his Etihad contract expires and will be able to move to any top club as a free agent, so City may already regret not extending his deal sooner. Instead, he focused on securing Kevin De Bruyne for a long-term deal, but Sterling is now in a much stronger position and able to name his terms a lot.
Leroy Sane was granted permission to move to Bayern Munich for €49m last year to avoid leaving a high-value player free, and Sterling will be in the same position within 12 months if he gets a new one. unable to terminate the contract. Riyad Mahrez, Gabriel Jesus, Ilke Gundogan, Benjamin Mendy and Zack Stephens are in the same position, but none of these players have the position that Sterling enjoys, either by his age or first-team regular and profile. Because of low status.
Chelsea have seven players, including Kante and Jorginho, whose position is similar to Henderson at Liverpool, aged 30 and 29 respectively. Spurs, meanwhile, have only four players with two years to spare, including 29-year-old Son Heung-min.
With the future of Harry Kane yet to be settled, Spurs offered Son a longer deal than a 29-year-old (as of 2025), in order to avoid losing both players in the space of 12 months. At 32 and 31 respectively, Toby Alderweireld and Moussa Sissoko are less likely to be offered new deals.
The picture is different in Manchester United. Marcus Rashford, Luke Shaw, David de Gea and Fred are among nine with two years each, but the club have a further 12-month option on each of their contracts, which insulates them.
Still, if they don't move quickly to extend Rashford's contract, United run the risk of causing headaches down the line. At 23, like Sterling, Rashford has all the aces and will be assessing United's ambitions and chances of winning the trophy before committing to the best years of his career at the club.
At the other end of the age, Bayern have the big decisions on Lewandowski (32), Manuel Neuer (35) and Thomas Muller (31). The club's three legends who have led Bayern to incredible success, but taking them this summer or the next is much more than a new deal for any of them. But Bayern need to pick their moment. For example, Lewandowski could score a goal for another club to win the Champions League.
Sergio Busquets (33) and Toni Kroos (31) are problems for Barcelona and Real Madrid respectively, but Real will also have to decide what to do with 22-year-old Martin Odegaard now back from his loan spell at Arsenal. has gone.
Making the right decisions on players' two-year countdown is an issue that even the biggest clubs grapple with, and this, combined with the financial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, may explain why this transfer window is so slow. Happening
Dealing with internal issues is a priority and some players may feel like they are being dropped, while some clubs will feel powerless to persuade the star youngster to sign for a longer period. And so the countdown to two years is the most important phase for all players and clubs.