The NBA Finals have yet to be decided, but 28 other teams are already in offseason mode, working toward the 2021 NBA Draft and a free-agency period that begins just days later. There are several important decisions coming up that will affect the 2022 title race and beyond.
Will Kawhi Leonard stay with the LA Clippers? How can the Los Angeles Lakers get a third star? Which All-NBA player can trade next?
These are some of the big questions that may be answered this summer. Here's a list of the biggest questions we're looking at with the introduction of free agency just three weeks away.
Is the 2021-22 salary range affected by COVID-19?
Even with fan attendance nearing capacity for most playoff games, the league is still feeling the financial effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, sources confirmed to ESPN that the salary cap is projected to come in at $112.1 million in 2021-22, a 3% increase from the previous season.
A small increase will have a huge impact on spending. For the second season in a row, ESPN is projecting only four teams to hold the cap space: the Charlotte Hornets, Miami Heat, New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs. By comparison, from 2017-18 to 2019-20 there were 15, 9 and 14 teams below the cap.
The Dallas Mavericks, Toronto Raptors and Chicago Bulls may join the group, but at the expense of their own major free agents (Tim Hardaway Jr., Kyle Lowry and Laurie Markkanen, respectively). The Thunder could be up to $36 million in the cap space but there are four big trade exceptions ($27.6 to $9.6 million) and are likely to function as a team on cap.
What position is the darkest group of free agents in?
The free-agent talent pool is average this off-season, but it will be on the point guard if strength is in place. While it is likely that Chris Paul remains with the Phoenix Suns, either on a new contract or extension, the market has been flooded with early-caliber point guards who can switch teams. The list includes Lowry, Mike Connelly, Lonzo Ball (banned), Spencer Dinwiddie, Dennis Schroder, Reggie Jackson, Kendrick Nunn (banned), Devonte Graham (banned) and Cameron Payne.
The free-agent talent pool is average this off-season, but it will be on the point guard if strength is there. While it is likely that Chris Paul remains with the Phoenix Suns, either on a new contract or extension, the market has been flooded with early-caliber point guards who can switch teams. The list includes Lowry, Mike Connelly, Lonzo Ball (banned), Spencer Dinwiddie, Dennis Schroder, Reggie Jackson, Kendrick Nunn (banned), Devonte Graham (banned) and Cameron Payne.
There is also a strong group of Wings - led by DeMar DeRozan, Hardaway, Norman Powell, Duncan Robinson, Doug McDermott, Josh Hart, Kelly O'Brey Jr. and Gary Trent Jr. - that should gain interest with teams with cap spaces.
Is Phoenix a favorite to re-sign Chris Paul?
After the finals are over, Paul has decided to go with his $44.2 million player option. He can opt in and extend for an additional two seasons with Suns or trial free agency. If he becomes a free agent, the Suns are still heavy favorites to bring back Paul.
In addition to the ability to offer more years (four compared to three) and money in a new contract, Phoenix checks the boxes on the two most important things on a free-agent wish list: a roster who now wants to win championships. The quality of life has been created (and in the future) and off the court.
The Knicks would be mentioned because of Paul's relationship with his former agent, Leon Rose, who is now the Knicks' president. However, there is no comparison when drafting the Suns roster, which returns Devin Booker, Mikael Bridges, Cameron Johnson, Deandre Ayton and Jay Crowder to a Knicks team alongside RJ Barrett and Julius Randall.
Paul has earned over $300 million in his career on the court, signed three maximum contracts and is at a point in his life when competing for a championship may outweigh the search for that next lucrative deal.
What will happen to Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers?
Leonard's free-agent decision only two years earlier put a temporary moratorium on the off-season. He eventually signed with the Clippers, but his contract included the option to become a free agent again in 2021. The decision was seen more as a business strategy as the forward would reach 10 years of service in 2021, meaning he could sign on to a new one. Contract with Clippers starting from 35% of the salary range.
Now entering the off-season, we will learn whether Leonard's decision to sign a short-term contract was financially motivated or if he wants to explore his options outside the Clippers. If the decision is the latter, Leonard moves to the top of the list as the most desirable free agent and could once again put the off-season to a standstill.
While there is no team that can offer Leonard more financially than the Clippers, the All-Star has turned down lucrative contracts from the Spurs and Raptors in the past. If Leonard becomes a free agent, expect a line of suitors to include New York, Dallas and Miami.
The Knicks have a $39 million pay slot available, but signing Leonard outright would require the Mavericks and the Heat to shed a salary. If the Heat gave up all of their free agents (including Robinson and Nunn) and declined the team options of Goran Dragic and André Iguodala, they would have room for $29 million.
If Hardaway is relinquished, the Mavericks would have room for $34 million, Willie Colley-Stein's team option being ruled out and Josh Richardson either trading or denying his player option.
What should we expect from the Lakers?
There's no clear path to securing a third star for the Lakers, assuming that teaming up with LeBron James and Anthony Davis is also available this summer.
The Lakers are over salary limits, and their roster options are limited outside of bringing back their own free agents: Schroder, Alex Caruso and Talen Horton-Tucker. Signing all three pushes them into the luxury tax, leaving Los Angeles with a $5.9 million tax midlevel and minimal exceptions to fill out the rest of the roster. If the Lakers let Schroder run but bring back Caruso and Horton-Tucker, they're still limited to a $5.9 million tax midlevel exception, even if Montregel Harrell declines his $9.7 million player option.
A sign-and-trade is an option, but it would trigger a hard cap of $143 million, meaning the Lakers would have to forego the contracts of Harrell and Kyle Kuzma or Kentavius Caldwell-Pope. Is there a team out there that owes Kuzma $39 million or Caldwell-Pope's $17 million?
For example, will Brooklyn consider Kuzma and No. 22 in this month's draft to help facilitate Dinwiddie sign-and-trade? The $13 million Kuzma contract would add to the Nets' substantial luxury tax bill. DeRozan makes sense for the Lakers, but do the Spurs want a package of Caldwell-Pope, Kuzma and the 22nd pick back?
Getting a player into a sign-and-trade could also hurt the Lakers Caruso or Horton-Tucker, leaving the Lakers with minimal veterans to fill their bench.
Who is the next All-Star to trade?
A superstar has been traded in each of the last three seasons: Chris Paul in 2020, Anthony Davis (among others) in 2019 and Kawhi Leonard in 2018.
It remains to be seen whether anyone will follow him in 2021, but if it does, logical candidates would be Portland Trail Blazers guard Damien Lillard, Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beale and Philadelphia 76ers guard Ben Simmons.
Portland's Neil Olsche has been adamant that Lillard's future lies in Portland.
"Dame and I talk all the time," he said. "Dame's happiness has always revolved around winning. The ultimate responsibility behind this is on me and my staff to build a team. Every indication is that the Dame doesn't want to leave Portland. He wants to retire a Trail Blazer. He has expressed that stakeholders."
Lillard is set to enter the first year of a four-year, $176.3 million Supermax extension he signed in 2019, coming off an appearance in the Portland Conference Finals. The Blazers have been bounced in the first round in each of the last two seasons.
Washington overcame a lot of adversity this past season to earn a post-season appearance, but Wizards GM Tommy Shepard isn't content with being conservative with the roster.
"This is not a Run It Back team," he said. "We have to be better".
However, change isn't easy given that the Wizards are over the salary limit, $10 million short of luxury taxes and ending their bench with Ish Smith, Raul Neto, Robin Lopez and Alex Lane all free agents. can see.
Beale will reach 10 years of service in 2022 and could sign an extension of the salary cap to 35% starting October 1 as a result. The four-year extension - starting in 2022–23 in place of his $36.4 million player option - will have a starting salary of $40.5 million and total $181.5 million over the life of the deal.
The Wizards are on the same financial playing field as a team with expansion that could sign Beale with Cap Space in 2022. The four-year extension would put Beale's total salary only $7 million more than the maximum he would get on the contract. second team.
If Beale turns down the extension, the Wizards shouldn't take it as a sign that he wants out. He could choose to play the season in 2022 and explore his options, when he could sign a new five-year deal with Washington totaling $54 million. Denying the extension may just be a smart financial decision.
Still, it would leave the Wizards with a franchise-change decision: Do they risk losing Beale for nothing or do they explore the business market?
In Philadelphia, Simmons is coming out of a playoff series disaster against Atlanta, and the 76ers will be trading from a disadvantaged position if they consider the offers. Despite his offensive flaws, Simmons has been an all-defensive first team selection in each of the last two seasons and did not turn 25 as of July 20. He is owed $147 million over the next four seasons.
Will the 2018 Rookie Draft Class Contract Expansion Above $1 Billion?
A year ago, the 2017 draft class — led by Jason Tatum, Bam Adebayo, Donovan Mitchell and D'Aaron Fox — set a league record when it signed $1 billion in rookie extensions.
Expect to break that mark this off-season with a first-round selection picked in 2018.
Ayton, Luka Doncic, Trae Young, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Michael Porter Jr. alone contribute an estimated $860 million in new money. Five players signing a rookie maximum extension would set the record for one season.
Add to that group Bridges, Kevin Huerter, Colin Sexton, Donat DiVincenzo, Miles Bridges, Robert Williams and possibly Jaren Jackson Jr. and we're looking at over $1.2 billion in expansion.
Is Oklahoma City adding to its treasure trove of first-round picks?
Given that Oklahoma City has four big business exceptions and very few teams with cap space to spend in free agency, expect the Thunder to continue to hold unwanted contracts and more selections in future first rounds in the process. will do as they do. Last month Kemba Walker was done with business.
Two of those trade exceptions ($27.6 and $10.2 million) expire on August 9, but the Thunder are likely to function as a team on Cap until then.
Since 2019, when Paul George was sent off to the Clippers, the Thunder have amassed 11 first-round picks and swap rights over three others.
Is there a wild-card team in free agency that no one is talking about?
Grizzlies may also be a player in the free agency and trade market.
They face a decision on Justice Winslow's $13 million team option. If the Grizzlies pick it up, they'll be working as an over-the-caps team this summer. If they decline and let Winslow run, Memphis could shell out $22 million in cap space.
If Memphis elects to stay on the cap, it will depend on continuity with a roster that has 13 players under contract, while also including first-round picks.
Will another year of player development and a healthy Jackson be enough to push the Grizzlies west into the top six and avoid another trip to the play-in rounds? Perhaps, but teams operate in a three-year window, and if the Grizzlies pounce on this year, they will face bigger questions next season.
Jonas Valenciunas, Kyle Anderson, Tyce Jones and Winslow (if their team's option is exercised) will be at their contract expiration in 2021–22. Memphis also has a financial decision to make with Jackson and Grayson Allen, both of whom are due to expand this summer.
Will the Grizzlies package Anderson, Winslow, Brooks, and several first-round picks (they have nine over the next seven years) to try to take down the next disgruntled All-Star? It is not the character of this front office to do so, but it is a move that could take them from a fringe playoff team to a contender.
Who are some of the radar free agents to keep an eye on?
Keep an eye out for Richun Holmes and McDermott.
Holmes is coming off a two-year period in Sacramento in which he started 88 games, averaging 13 points and 8.5 rebounds. Because he signed a two-year contract, the Kings offered the highest $10.7 million ($1.2 million more than a team can offer with the exception of the mid-tier) as a starting salary for 2021–22. can do League rules prevent the Kings from signing Holmes on a one-year, $11 million contract that would allow him to establish full Bird rights in 2022 and sign a more lucrative contract.
The Hornets could have an estimated $20.5 million in cap space (if Cody Zeller and Malik Monk move) and have made it known that there is a clear need for a center position.
Hornets coach James Borrego told the Charlotte Observer, "Every night I've been trying to figure it out with that group [of the centers]. It's been like that for three years." Celtics this season. "It could be another three years that we really continue to look like this."
McDermott averaged career-high points (13.6), field goal percentage (53.2%), true shooting percentage (63.2%) in rebounds (3.4) and offensive rating (10.5). He also ranks No. 6 among all short forwards in the offensive real plus-minus. Since the All-Star break, the forward has shot 56.1% from the field and 41.5% from 3-point range. The Pacers are $11 million short of luxury tax, and signing McDermott would push them to the threshold.