LONDON: Matteo Berrettini is playing his first major final. Novak Djokovic is playing his 30th match. But don't doubt the Italian's place on the table at Wimbledon.
"I had to say: I didn't pick Berrettini to make it to the finals, but I wasn't surprised," said ESPN analyst Patrick McEnroe. "I think he's obviously been playing very well the whole last year, especially in Queens. So looking at him because I've had the last few matches, he's been the best player ever at the bottom of the draw, so I don't think there's any doubt that he deserves to be where he is... It's hard to imagine anyone other than Djokovic beating Berrettini the way he's been playing."
We talked to McEnroe about what to watch in Sunday's men's final (9 a.m.; ESPN and ESPN apps) and what Berrettini needs to do to make history.
Berrettini must respond to pressure
The first thing to consider is how Berrettini handles their first major final. The first thing is how does he handle this opportunity because obviously Djokovic won't mind it. He's done it many times. So for him, Djokovic is a clear favorite, but if he comes out and plays his game, I think he has a shot.
As we saw in the semi-finals, his serve is huge. He has handled his serve very comfortably - big forehand and what has been most impressive to me about his game is that he has improved a lot in his return. He has got a lot of returns in playing. He is using a lot of finesse and touch with a backhand slice and some short balls. So if you look at his entire package, he hits a bigger ball than Djokovic.
Now, Djokovic clearly leads a lot better and has a lot more variety in his overall game, so he has the edge. Djokovic can come out much better than Berrettini. I definitely think that if Berrettini is comfortable and settles early on the occasion that he has the game that could really upset Djokovic.
Big advantage for Djokovic: Ball movement
Djokovic is trying to jump on Berrettini early because when you play someone who hasn't been there - I remember a few years ago when he played Kevin Anderson in the finals and it ripped him apart in the first set was. . So in this situation, he'll try to use his experience -- and how does he do it?
He can swing the ball well. He can use his slice, which he is using a lot with his backhand. He is the best returner in the game. So he's going to try to play a lot more from his serve to Berrettini than Berrettini in the tournament, and he's going to try and materialize the points more. Lengthen the points, make it more about movement on the court. So you'll see that he goes down the line probably too high so that he can take Berrettini on the run, get himself on the run. That's where they have a huge advantage against him on this surface.
Service is going to be very important. Serving Berrettini, four of his six victories had more than 20 aces. So is he going to be able to do that against Djokovic, it's going to be difficult because Djokovic is so quick and so quick and such a great returner. But clearly, the number to watch for me more than anything is how he performs on his second serve point. He's probably going to take his aces. It will be interesting to see if he gets as many runs against Djokovic as he has. Plus-20, say. I think he only had one double fault in the semi-final, late in the last game of the match, it was his first double fault. So the second thing for him is whether he will play more in his second serve to get to know his opponent?
I think Djokovic is in a good place mentally. I believe the only way he can rattle is if Berrettini plays big and takes it. If Berrettini is playing points too early he can feel frustrated. But I don't think this opportunity is going to disappoint them. I don't think there will be anything about going for 20 [majors], going for another Wimbledon title to tie Nadal and Federer. I think it's a big part of his motivation so I don't see him getting nervous about it.
I see he gets a little upset if Berrettini plays his A-game, and then he can get frustrated with it and compound it, but I don't see this opportunity bothering him. It would have to come from his opponent, while his opponent might be more upset by the opportunity. If he tries to reach the final after getting a little nervous, he can walk down the set early.
Freshness shouldn't be a problem
I think Djokovic does a great job of not worrying about what's in front of him. He hasn't really been tested that much physically, and as we've seen, this year too, the number of matches he's won at the Australian Open and then the French Open, he's going to be ready if he has to be physically tested. going for that. I think he'll find that Berrettini has the kind of game that can upset him so that he can have that respect for his opponent.
Berrettini looks very fit and very strong. For the most part, his path has been very easy. [Felix] a four-setter against Auger-Aliassim, a four-setter [Friday], but he's always been ahead in his matches and he's strong as a bull, so I don't see any problem with any player physically It doesn't come in. They should both be relatively fresh.
I'll be interested to see if anyone comes across the net a bit more. We saw a little more than Djokovic in the semi-finals. I could see that Djokovic was trying to penetrate a little bit more on Berrettini's backhand because that is his weak side and passing shot and I don't think that short piece shot that he hit against [Hubert] would work against Djokovic. Is going to do. So it's another matter: neither player you think of as a nets player - certainly during the tournament - but Djokovic has become more comfortable moving forward, so I can certainly see that being a factor in the match.
I still think I want to be with Djokovic, but I wouldn't be surprised if Berrettini wins. I think it will be a very close match. I can see Berrettini winning a set, maybe two.