They first discuss Baker Mayfield and his future in Cleveland. They then make their upset picks for the week followed by each naming a player whose recent play has earned him a bigger role in 2022.
Graziano and Fowler also make early Super Bowl picks before emptying their notebooks with everything they’ve heard this week, including nuggets on Mike Mayock’s future in Las Vegas, why the Giants plan to keep Daniel Jones in 2022 and an injury update on Mike Evans. Here we go:
Let’s talk through Baker Mayfield’s situation. Is there any chance he’s not Cleveland’s 2022 starter?
Graziano: Well, sure. The Browns on the hook for a fully guaranteed $18.858 million, which is the impediment, but if the Jets could get something for Sam Darnold in a trade last offseason, it’s not ridiculous to think Cleveland could get something for Mayfield if it decided to move him. And if it didn’t – and it still wanted to bring in someone else to start over him – it could certainly adjust that individual’s contract to structure it with a low 2022 number so the overall quarterback cost wouldn’t be out of control. The names of the guys potentially available on the 2022 offseason QB market are the kinds of names for which you would stretch.
Fowler: Agreed. The Browns are only as good as their options though, and I’m not sure there’s a clear path to acquiring some of the top passers available. Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson have no-trade clauses, and they seem to have specific locations in mind. Those locations are not Cleveland. Aaron Rodgers is a West Coast guy. Maybe somebody else fits the Browns’ mold. But running it back with Mayfield, who has been beat up all season and might have been pressing due to his contract, seems plausible. He’s still capable. If the Browns decide they want to move on from him, they would need a trade partner in the worst way. I don’t see them carrying him on the roster with a new quarterback – a draft pick, maybe, but I just don’t see that dynamic going well. And I do think he’d have a market. Where are you on that, Dan?
Graziano: I could see the case being made, based on what we know about Mayfield, that bringing in a younger quarterback to compete with him could be just the thing he needs to motivate him to improve. I could see that case being made; I’m just not sure I agree with it. First of all, it definitely needs to be mentioned here that he’s playing hurt, and that an accurate assessment of his abilities probably can’t be made right now. And even if this is what you think he is, I’m not sure bringing in competition and getting his juices flowing is guaranteed to work. It seems to me the Browns built a roster that could win if it got competent quarterback play, and when it doesn’t, they lose. They have to ask themselves (a) if they were right about the rest of the roster and (b) if they can count on consistently competent QB play from Mayfield. I don’t envy their decision.
Fowler: Not sure either of those questions have clear-cut answers right now, though the roster is strong in most areas. There’s always the Chicago game plan of creating bridge-level competition with a hired gun type such as Nick Foles vs. Mitchell Trubisky. The Browns still have Case Keenum under contract, or they could go the Andy Dalton-Teddy Bridgewater-Ryan Fitzpatrick route. But that’s hardly an inspired move. If Mayfield can somehow bottle up his good stretches – 2018 post-Hue Jackson and 2020 – and the Browns believe he can find that gear again, this marriage is salvageable.
What’s your top upset pick for Week 17?
Fowler: Cardinals (+5.5) over Cowboys. The Cardinals must find their edge after a three-game slide. Luckily, they can find that on the road, where they are 7-1. Dak Prescott was lights out at home last week, but I’m expecting Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray to rediscover their offensive touch, too.
Graziano: I have to say, I lingered over that one for a second, but ultimately went with Dallas in my picks. Just not sure where Arizona is right now after the last few weeks and what to think of their chances moving forward.
I’m going Bengals (+5) over the Chiefs. Because why not? I’m all aboard the Joe Burrow bandwagon, the Chiefs have to lose at some point (I think?), and with the ability to clinch a division title staring them right in the face, I think Cincinnati muscles up and has a chance to pull the upset. The Bengals are a weird team. They’ve lost some games they shouldn’t have lost (Jets, Bears) and they’ve either won or been in some games they shouldn’t have won or been in (Packers, Ravens). They can play with anybody and that Burrow is a winner who has a chance to show it in a big way this weekend.
Fowler: I’m a bit surprised at that line. The Chiefs are hot but the Bengals are emitting similar levels of heat. Cincinnati has five legitimate offensive weapons, the offensive line is better than expected and so is the defense. I guess the tiebreaker goes to Kansas City’s defense, which has held five of its last seven opponents to 10 points or fewer.
Which player has carved out a bigger role for next season with his recent performance?
Graziano: Seahawks running back Rashaad Penny. How bad did things get for the Seahawks’ 2018 first-round pick? The team declined his 2022 fifth-year option last May even though it would have been only $4.523 million. So he’ll be eligible for free agency, and his injury history will legitimately give teams pause. But he has shown over the past few weeks – he has 130 rushing yards in two of his past three games – that he’s capable of big things when he’s healthy and they give him the ball. If Penny is back in Seattle, he should have an inside track for increased work and maybe even the starter’s role. And if he signs elsewhere, it should be with a big role in mind.
Fowler: Good call. The Seahawks have been waiting years for Penny’s recent stretch of play. I’ll go with Texans quarterback Davis Mills. He has shown promise in his last three starts, completing 73 of 106 passes for 794 yards, five touchdowns and one interception. Mills was a good use of a third-round pick, taking a chance on a potential starter without stretching draft capital. He at least deserves the right to compete in 2022 with a draft pick or free-agent/trade acquisition.
If you had to predict Super Bowl LVI right now, who wins and why?
Fowler: Packers 31, Bills 21. The playoff universe is aligning for Green Bay, which should have home-field advantage throughout. The Packers will be ready for Tampa Bay, which is more beat up than it was a year ago. The Bills have flailed a bit as a trendy Super Bowl pick, but I’m expecting them to peak at the right time. Counting on Kansas City to make three straight Super Bowls is a tough sell. The Packers would have too many weapons for the Bills, the versatility to win with the run or the pass, which you need in the Super Bowl. And Aaron Rodgers, after all he has been through with Green Bay, can punctuate that relationship with a championship on his way out (potentially), a moment he would embrace.
Graziano: Bills 34, Packers 31. Same teams, but I’m sticking with my preseason pick of the Bills over the Packers. After what I saw Sunday in Foxborough, I’m inclined to believe that Buffalo’s problems are largely behind them and that they’re a team that can get geared up for the biggest games. Josh Allen might make a brutal mistake or two along the way, but he has the ability to make game-changing plays that other people just aren’t good enough athletes to make. This team is driven to avenge last season’s AFC Championship Game loss to the Chiefs, and I think they can do it.
Fowler: Like the conviction. The NFC was hard to pick because it’s so top-heavy. I still think the Bucs have the NFC’s most complete roster but injuries might overtake them. If the Rams’ brain trust of Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford finds something in January, they’ll be dangerous. But I have a hard time thinking they will win in frigid Green Bay in late January.