It's been a whirlwind in the NBA news cycle on Wednesday, but the news of Kawhi Leonard being out for the remainder of this playoff series against the Utah Jazz is arguably the biggest development of the day. After losing the first two games of the series, Leonard and the LA Clippers held court at home and suddenly it all seemed like a threat to win.
Leonard's outstanding performance this season has earned him the MVP of the Western Conference playoffs. Formerly with Kevin Durant, Leonard was playing better than anyone else in these playoffs. His PER in the post season is the highest at 30.4. So if Leonard can't play due to a knee injury, the Clippers are no longer contenders. It's that easy.
As a scorer, Leonard was combining volume and efficiency at ridiculously high levels. In the first round, he became the first player since Shaquille O'Neill in 2000 to score 200 points and shoot 60% or better in the same series.
He has been consistently unstoppable, just look at this list.
But here's the thing: Unlike the other legends on that list, Leonard is doing this while taking a lot of jumps. When he entered the league, he didn't have a reliable jump shot. Now it does, and calling it "reliable" is an understatement.
Leonard has become one of the best midrange scorers on the planet. While these shots are generally turned down in the analytics age, this doesn't particularly apply to the select group of sharpshooters who can hit these shots at the highest rates. Leonard was converting a ridiculous 66% of his midrangers this postseason – on pace to have the highest field goal percentage on midrange shots in a single postseason in the past 25 years (minimum 30 FGA).
All told, Leonard was giving the Clippers 30.4 points per game at a very efficient clip, but he has also been the team's most important catalyst throughout the year. Good things happen when Leonard has the ball in his hand. According to Second Spectrum, no team has scored more points per game on the halfcourt this season by a player bringing the ball up than the Clippers and the Quays.
Ty Lew's offense will greatly reduce Leonard's ability to create, especially on Drive. According to Second Spectrum, Leonard averaged 1.18 points per direct drive this season, the third-best in the NBA including the playoffs (minimum 200 drives). Leonard's 4.4 assists per game placed the team second.
Oh, and then there's the rescue. Leonard is a twice defensive player of the year for a reason; He is one of the best wing defenders the NBA has ever produced. Like Scottie Pippen and Michael Jordan, Leonard has repeatedly led his team to victory in the biggest stages of the league with his lockdown defenses.
His ability to shut down superstars is arguably his signature trait. His defense over LeBron James in the 2014 Finals was the main reason he won the Finals MVP that year, and when Nick Nurse decided to put him on Giannis Antetokounmpo in Game 3 of the 2019 Eastern Conference Finals, the Bucks fell apart, and the Raptors Won four straight games on the way to the title.
That Illuminati defense was a huge reason the Clippers erased a 2-game deficit in the first round against the Dallas Mavericks. No one can stop Luka Doncic, but Leonard did a great job slowing him down, reducing both his scoring volume and his shooting efficiency.
With Leonard on the shelf, the Clippers are now short-handed against one of the best perimeter offenses in the league (even if the Jazz is shorthanded without point guard Mike Connelly Jr.). Utah has one of the most prolific perimeter offenses in NBA history. In the regular season, the Jazz was the first team in NBA history to average at least 50 points per game on 3-point shots. The Rockets never did this. Warriors never did this. But the Jazz does, and whether it's slowing down Donovan Mitchell, removing passes, or shutting down other shooters, Leonard's absence on defense is noticeable on the scoreboard. Expect Mitchell, who struggled in Game 4 while playing with a pain in his left ankle, to get easier driving opportunities, and expect his teammates to enjoy some more open form out of town.
When Leonard did not play against the Jazz on February 17, the Clippers lost by 18 points, their fourth-worst loss of the regular season. It was one of eight regular season games in which the Clippers failed to score 100 points.
If it's a harbinger of things to come this week, shearling is doomed. Injuries are a fact of life in pro basketball, but it is also fair to say that this post season they have been marred by an unprecedented level. Before this morning's news about Leonard, a total of 7 different All-Star players had already missed playoff games this year, the most in a season in NBA history.
Add Leonard to that disappointing list, and join the Clippers to a growing list of title contenders whose untimely injury to one of their best players is likely to derail their postseason run. As the league approaches the finish line of an unprecedented season, so do many of its superstars.