The Summer Games are a year late and Tokyo will look different with no fans in attendance, but there are still plenty of opportunities to bet.
Andre Snellings, Tyler Fulgham and Doug Kezirian make their best bets for the Olympics.
In the Snellings: Dream Team era, there was only one period in which Team USA men's basketball struggled against international competition and that was in the early 2000s. Team USA finished sixth at the 2002 FIBA World Championships, then held on for the bronze medal at the 2004 Olympics. This improved the way the team was selected and how it prepared for international play, and Team USA has won gold medals at every Olympics since then. Fast forward to this iteration of Team USA, which lost its first two exhibition games and went 1-3 ATS on aggregate during the exhibition season. This has raised some concern that this team will struggle in the Olympics as well, and I expect that concern to translate to the odds at some level (USA was -900). But I believe that this Team USA is still set to win Olympic gold this time for a variety of reasons.
International basketball differs from the NBA, stylistically, in a way that was not fully respected prior to the 2004 Olympics. There is a lot of emphasis on shooting and teamwork, with an emphasis on the ISO ball. American teams in the early 2000s were full of NBA superstars who thrived in ISO, could break defenses with dribbles and finish in paint... skills that weren't as valuable in international play. The current Team USA is led by pure shooters, including Kevin Durant and Damien Lillard, who can maximize value in international play. The new additions to the team are either more shooters (Devin Booker and Khris Middleton) or glue/defense/teamwork guys (Jrue Holiday, Keldon Johnson, Jawale McGee). The exhibition season, though ugly, allowed the core of the team to learn to play together, and players like Durant are inspired to show that they can lead the team to gold as well as past legends LeBron James and Kobe Bryant. can go. I hope Team USA will play above expectations and bring home the gold again.
Fulgham: I'll fade Team USA basketball during these Olympic Games. They were 1-3 ATS during the exhibition games, and I think that trend will continue. Chemistry issues are a concern. How tired will Booker, Holiday and Middleton be? I think the value of ATS on opponents will be given given the reputation of Team USA. And this is not an American team that features its best players (James, Stephen Curry, Anthony Davis, etc.). I would play Australia, Spain or Slovenia (Luka Doncic!) to win gold over Team USA.
Australia (-7) vs Nigeria on Sunday
Kezirian: Australia is the biggest threat to the United States in its quest for a gold medal. Aaron Baynes, Joe Ingalls and Patty Mills make the starts, while Matisse Thiboule is a defensive stalwart off the bench. Most importantly, the Australian team has consistency and excellent shooting, which are very important when facing teams that lack the experience of playing together. Nigeria is a great example of this. While Nigeria has eight NBA players, the team was slapped together with well-travelled NBA head coach Mike Brown. Both of these squads attended an exhibition in Las Vegas earlier this month, and Australia dominated 42 points even as Baynes, Ingalls and Mills all sat outside. The Boomers are so solid and they should win by double digits.
Novak Djokovic won the gold (-165)
Snellings: On the men's side, I'm going to chalk it up to gold with Djokovic. Djokovic is clearly the best male player in the world right now, but more than that he is inspired by history. He has been chasing Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal in GOAT discussions throughout his career, and at the recently concluded Wimbledon event he finally caught them with a record 20 individual Grand Slam titles. Djokovic, however, has won the first three majors this year and has a legitimate chance of achieving the unique feat of winning the calendar Grand Slam and Olympic gold in the same year. The only person to do so was Steffi Graf in 1988, and this type of feather in her hat would be a huge argument for her GOAT bid. I look for him to bring home.
Naomi Osaka won the gold medal (+275)
Snellings: On behalf of the women, I'm looking for Osaka to win it all. She was in news throughout the summer for advocating for the player's mental health and subsequent skirmishes over the availability of the media, which led to her withdrawal from the French Open and Wimbledon. However, it obscures some relevant facts. Firstly, Osaka is the best female player in the world on the hard court. Neither the French Open (clay) nor Wimbledon (grass) were its best surfaces anyway, but Osaka has won the last two hard-court slams (2021 Australian Open, 2020 US Open) in dominant fashion. The 2021 Olympics will be played on hard courts. In addition, Osaka was born in Japan and has been representing the country in these games, giving her the advantage of a home court. If she is in good shape mentally and emotionally, Osaka should be the clear favorite of victory.
South Africa (+18.5) vs Italy on Saturday
Kezirian: This is a play based entirely on principle - 18.5 goals is the equivalent of about 50 points in a football game. It's really hard to lose by that margin. I understand that Italy is a medal contender and South Africa is not, but you have to figure out that the Italian reserve will take a long time to play. I expect a double-digit win, but 18.5 is too much. I have to play the underdog and hope it doesn't get out of hand.
USA (-4.5) vs Japan on Sunday; 100-1 or more time to win gold
Kezirian: Opening against the host country is always difficult, but the Americans faced a similar situation against China in 2008 and won. Team USA is a huge wild card for these summer games. The team was extremely young in 2016, and since then some of the top players have gained incredible experience with the elite European leagues, so there is an outside chance they could peak this summer and score legitimate runs. It will be an incredibly difficult road, but it needs to start off well with a win over a weak Japan team. The Americans should take care of business, and keeping a 4.5 isn't that hard with the new rules of the game, which are expected to allow for more scoring.
For the futures market, any medals would be considered a huge success. However, I've seen some 200-1 gold-medal possibilities out there, and it's pretty high; 75-1 sounds about right, so pretty much anything is worth a small wager. After all, Team USA lost to Montenegro in the final of the 2020 World Super League Final by a goal. If the stars align—and they clearly will need to—it's conceivable that the U.S. team wins its first men's water polo gold medal. The margin of error of this game is so small, with extremely subjective substitution, so long odds don't make sense
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Kezirian: Serbia has entered the top spot in the FINA world rankings, an accumulation of points since the 2016 Olympics. However, Spain defeated Serbia in January on its way to win the European Championship. It will be a fight between two countries with gold medal aspirations and can go either way, but I still think Serbia is a better team. I hope it will win in regulation.
Montenegro (-2.5) vs Australia
Kezirian: Montenegro is one of six legitimate gold medal contenders, and Australia is not. The Boomers have progressed in the game and have been able to get into trouble given Montenegro's inconsistency, but eventually I'll have to stick with a more talented team with a relatively low spread. I wouldn't round 4.5, but at 2.5 and some juice, I'd have to cut. The best of Montenegro are quite impressive, as I mentioned earlier this year with the World Super League Final title. Australia can't hang on with that version.