The first week of the 2021 NFL season is here, and Sunday will be filled with the first fall from now to mid-February. Rosters are created and trades are submitted, so now the real work begins. No more Vanilla Precision games. It's all about the matchups.
The player who wins those matchups the most times will have individual rewards, postseason recognition and, of course, the inside track of fantasy heroism. We know the basics when it comes to awards season: A quarterback will probably win Most Valuable Player, Aaron Donald will be in the mix for defensive player of the year and some of the rookie stars outside the first round will emerge.
But much remains to be decided. Matthew Stafford generated more buzz in his first season with the Rams than in his combined 12 campaigns with the Lions. The Chargers' Justin Herbert looks ready to explode. Behind a better offensive line, Patrick Mahomes could be even better. Lamar Jackson's ceiling remains a hotly debated one. Tom Brady plays for the most talented team in football right now. And the reign of MVP Aaron Rodgers begins on a last dance of sorts — and another season of spite, which means big numbers.
Beyond the QB, at least seven running backs are a threat to post a total of 2,000 yards. Last season, nine different receivers posted more than 1,200 yards, a number that could increase this year as there is an influx of talent into the position.
We talked to some of the officials, scouts, and coaches from around the league to make predictions on the players and coaches who will dominate this year, and we were able to pick a consensus for each category. As always, there are plenty of surprises, as league favorites often differ from media favorites - starting with a pick that Western New Yorkers will love.
MVP: Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
Allen joins the top-five quarterback discussion after maximizing his immense potential in 2020. The once-irregular passer completed nearly 70% of his passes for 4,544 yards, 37 touchdowns and 10 interceptions—and he added another eight points on the ground. Evaluators now predict another surge in Year 4 with the Bills.
"He's locked in, there's a huge offense around him, he should be in contention and he'll throw a ton of the ball," said an NFC executive.
Allen dominates the ball like Luka Doncic does in the NBA. His total of 674 passing and rushing attempts was second only to Kyler Murray (691) in the NFL. Allen is either scoring Buffalo or recording assists on most of Buffalo's downs. Plus, the Bills' receiver depth is in the top five in the league, and the offensive line is stable.
Buffalo's word is Allen has shown even greater growth with pre-snap security and decision making. Chief Allen was terrified at the AFC Championship Game, and some evaluators want to see more than that.
"I wonder how some of these young quarterbacks who succeeded last year in empty stadiums are going to handle entire stadiums," said an AFC executive. "Some people get up in that environment and it brings out the best... others struggle."
Allen is currently third with Tom Brady and went on to win the MVP at Kaiser Sportsbook 12–1 (5–1 behind Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers 10–1).
Offensive Player of the Year: Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers
McCaffrey was on his own level in 2019, as he piled 19 touchdowns on nearly 2,400 total yards and 403 touches. After getting injured in 2020, McCaffrey could hit 400 again in 2021.
"The Panthers want to support Sam [Darnold] so he doesn't have to take offense, and McCaffrey would be the perfect player for that system," said an NFC personnel. "They'll have him on top of all their carries in the slot all day."
The initial buzz from the camp is that there has been a revelation to the McCaffrey crime. The Panthers' coaching staff knew what he had last year, but could not get him on the field due to shoulder and ankle problems. Now, McCaffrey is in peak physical condition and ready to reclaim his spot among all of football's best playmakers.
Defensive Player of the Year: T.J. Watt, OLB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald might just win it every year, so we award him an honorary and look for a valid No. 2 for the argument.
Watt has been given priority for this award. Since 2018, he has averaged 14.2 sacks, 5.3 force fumbles, 6.0 pass defended and 32.7 quarterback hits per season. It is this consistency that is ultimately rewarded, and that pushed Donald into this category in 2020.
"He's figured things out where he knows how to influence each game plan, so I don't think he's going to have a bad year," said an AFC executive.
The main concern is the preparation of the watt. Watts left Team Workout in search of a contract extension and entered Week 1 without a new deal. He keeps himself in tremendous shape and is looking forward to returning to the lineup, but the Steelers believe you need to practice to play on Sunday. His availability for the first game is officially under question. Still, the Caesars Sportsbook has Watts at +750 to win the prize. Donald (+450) and Miles Garrett (+550) of Cleveland are No. 1 and 2.
As for other names, there's an absolute wild card that got more traction than I imagined: the Denver Broncos outside linebacker Von Miller, who hasn't seen peak form since 2018. Rarely do teams make an $18 million option in a 32-year-old player, but the Broncos did it to Miller because he's still so irresistible and disruptive.
"I saw him walking into Precision and said, 'He's the same guy,'" one NFC exec said of Miller. "He's still got his explosiveness. And he has a really good secondary, which should give him more time to run to a passerby."
Many evaluators agree that of the three starting quarterbacks, Jones has the best supporting cast. Lawrence and Zach Wilson (New York Jets) — April's top two picks, respectively — may be making more splash drama, but their crimes may still be a year away.
"But [Jaguars] are not devoid of talent: [Lawrence] has something to work for there," said the AFC scout. "That line could be great, they have DJ Chark Jr., [Laviska] Shenault Jr., a good backfield. I think Lawrence puts up the number."
Jones will have the big spotlight in New England, which includes a bunch of playmakers and several talented running backs. So the question becomes: by how much can Jones extend the field vertically?
"I think New England will be balanced. Eventually, the teams will pile up the box and force Mack to beat them," one NFC exec said of the draft's 15th pick. "I think he does."
Lawrence (+350) and Jones (+450) are also favorites at Kaiser Sportsbook.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Micah Parsons, ILB, Dallas Cowboys
Parsons - a 6-1 favorite at Caesars Sportsbook to win the award - has a chance to rack up serious numbers in defense of Dan Quinn as the do-it-all specialist. The Cowboys plan to use him in coverage and off the edge.
"He was the best defensive player in the draft, and he fell in Dallas," one AFC executive said of the No. 11 overall pick, who was considered a top-10 prospect for most of the draft process. "I think some teams took that on. Not sure if it was a personality with some teams [in the top 10]. But he's great for an athlete that doesn't have an immediate impact."
As a separate AFC exec clarified: "a broad impact."
Elsewhere, the rich get rich in Tampa, where edge rusher Joe Tryon-Shoyinka's explosive preseason sparks discussion in league circles. He wasn't a marquee name entering the draft, but in the minds of some evaluators he was quietly the best pass-rusher available. For example, the Steelers would have strongly considered picking him at No. 24 if they didn't take back Nazi Harris. And the crowds of Tampa Bay's Equal Opportunity Pass - with no double-digit sack guys but three players who ranged from 8 to 9.5 sacks last season - could create a lot of open lanes for Tryon-Shoyinka.
"That will take immediate effect," an NFC executive said. "Hardness and Technique."
Evaluators are also raving about the Broncos Corner Pat Suren II, citing his technique, spontaneity, and poise. He never looks rushed or stressed. But eight of the last 10 AP Defensive Rookie of the Year winners were in the front seven, so unless Sureten racks up interceptions quickly, the award will be difficult for him.
Comeback Player of the Year: Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
New York have been cautious with Barkley's return from a torn ACL in his right knee, but I hear the player is rushing to leave and the Giants are encouraged to play him as soon as possible. In fact, he is on track to play Week 1.
It's easy to say that the Giants should have selected the quarterback with the second pick in the 2018 draft. Barkley's 17 games due to injury only fueled that argument. But many assessors still view Barkley as the best pure talent in the running back position, and in his first two seasons, he averaged 119.6 total scrimmage yards per game despite being slowed down by an ankle issue in 2019.
"Assuming he's healthy, he's got to spend a big year and get himself back in the best back-to-back talks," said an NFC executive. "The attention he gets from defense makes him an elite. And if he has enough weapons that can give him some balance, his natural ability may take over."
Now about that offensive line in New York...
Coach of the Year: Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers
If the 49ers' roster remains well stocked during Christmas, Shanahan is positioned for his second season of double-digit wins. And how he gets there could influence voters vying for the prize: a potential two-quarterback system that has the attention of the entire league.
"Oh, he's going to do that," said one veteran NFL coach. "You can already see it. Jimmy [Garopolo] will be in base, and [Trey] Lance will get the package where you can play different play-actions. I can't wait to see it. They have the right one." The coach is there to handle it. He wants that challenge."
Shanahan has not revealed his quarterback plans, but it is widely believed that Garoppolo will start Week 1 as a starter. Coach made it clear that Lance would play, however, and New Orleans reminded us that good playcollars can find a way to use multiple passersby. Sean Peyton weaves Tessom Hill into Drew Breeze's game plan over the years.
Shanahan and Garoppolo are 24-8 together, so there is reason to believe the win will continue as Garoppolo returns from injury.
Biggest breakout: Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos
While the Minnesota Vikings overtook Justin Jefferson, the Indianapolis Colts, Jonathan Taylor, and other rookies broke through as Judy struggled through drops (12) and a catch percentage (47.3%), which cost him the best per pro football. In placed among the rookies with at least 40 goals. Center. He finished with a respectable 52 receptions for 856 yards, but those who watched him know he is capable of much more.
"He's a good route runner, and I think he'll fix the issues that used to affect him," said a veteran AFC coach. "It looked like the drops were concentration issues where he tried to look downfield before he could secure the ball. If he clears it, he could take away his natural ability."
Denver's receiver room is the most overcrowded room in the league, with Judy, Cortland Sutton, Tim Patrick and K.J. But Denver sees Judy as a 1,000-yard receiver, even with internal competition. In Denver the question is simple: Can Teddy Bridgewater give the ball to everyone?
Biggest surprises: No consensus
Here are some players that execs and scouts have pointed to as a potential big surprise.
Rondell Moore, WR, Arizona Cardinals: "You can already see that in preseason they're trying creative ways to get him the ball. He's dynamic. I think heavily involved in what he does Is." --AFC execution
Jameis Winston, QB, New Orleans Saints: "If he cuts turnover, he can be dangerous in that offense with a Sean Peyton touch. I think Sean loves the challenge of starting at quarterback." - NFC execution
Hunter Renfro, WR, Las Vegas Raiders: "[The Raiders] are expecting them to be one of the best slots in the game." --AFC execution
Jeffrey Simmons, DT, Tennessee Titans: "The numbers aren't there, but he's planning against that more than any inner guy. Now that he's perfectly healthy and should be getting more help, Tennessee needs bigger things than him." should be expected." - NFC Scout
Montez Sweat, DE, Washington Football Team: "He may not be a top-10 pass-rusher now, but he will be by the end of the year." - NFC Scout
Most polarizing star: Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
I recently mentioned on ESPN's Get Up! That some officials around the league believe this may be the year the teams locate Jackson. Analyst Ryan Clark looked at me from the side, then cleverly thought about what it took to find the 4.3-second 40-yard dash motion. That's a good point, but I was just pointing out that their suspicions aren't dropped around the NFL - and more people are joining the fray, pointing to the Ravens version of the high school offense that Last year ended last in passing.
"I don't know if he can do that when the game shrinks into the playoffs and you have to come up with the game from behind," said an NFC executive. "He's a huge talent, but I have doubts about the accuracy in those settings."
Jackson is 1-3 in the post season, where he has completed only 55.5% of his passes and has thrown three touchdowns to five interceptions. He averaged 6.6 yards per attempt and took 19 sacks in those four games.
As one AFC executive put it, "I don't know if he'll ever have surgical accuracy, and it's necessary now."
To be sure, it's easy to claim that Jackson is "detected" unless he's bursting through your defense's differential assignment. Supporters say Jackson's ferocity and explosiveness will keep him a fixture in top 10 QB conversations and possibly help him land another MVP run. They will also suggest that more needs to be done to help Baltimore develop it. Perhaps Jackson's MVP season in Year 2 created high expectations that are nearly impossible to meet every year.
"He throws the ball better than people think, the ultimate competitor," said one NFC exec. "With a good defense it's easy to detect that offense. He only has so many options... crowd the box and give him a hard time and tell him to throw you."
A separate NFC exec believes Jackson's running ability will always force defenses to play man coverage and that if he can win those one-on-one matchups, "He'll have another big year."
"People think he was always run-first, but he was more pro-ready than people thought coming from Bobby Petrino's offense [at Louisville]," the exec added.