The vast majority of NFL previews attempt to predict what is most likely to happen in the upcoming season. I suspect you've read about 40 or 50 of them by now. Every year, just before the season starts, I like to take a slightly different look at what's to come. Today, I'm going to give you an explanation of how every team in the NFL is able to win Super Bowl LVI.
Clearly, these teams don't have the same chance of celebrating in Los Angeles next February. According to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), on paper the four top Super Bowl contenders have about a 50% chance of winning the Vince Lombardi Trophy. The Books had a 3.8% shot at winning the title last season, when I wrote this:
"The Bucks are closer to a Super Bowl than you might think, because their defense is probably better than the one you pictured after last season. The Tampa Bay defense is 29th in scoring, but that's mostly Jameis Winston and offense. When you take away his seven sixes and take into account the fact that Todd Bowles' defense suffered a league-high 189 drives and inherited the league's worst average starting field position , then Tampa Bay's sixth-place finish in the defensive DVOA makes more sense. Those issues with turnover-averse Tom Brady as the Bucks' new quarterback are unlikely to recur."
Suggesting that Brady might win a Super Bowl doesn't really qualify as practical analysis, but the Bucks were too close to the defensive side of the ball, as traditional measures of performance might have seemed. For each of these 32 teams, I'll try to use the evidence we have from history about their performances and comparable situations to try to tease out a scenario in which they might be able to win an NFL championship. . I'll start with the teams that the FPI believes are the least likely to win the title and count down to the No. 1 team:
Chance to win Super Bowl LVI: Less than 0.1%
Chance to make it to the playoffs: 3.6%
Will the Texans be the most unlikely Super Bowl winners of all time? I really don't think so. The 2021 Texans are coming off a 4-12 season and an unlikely quarterback Deshan Watson—who faces 22 active lawsuits with sexual assault and inappropriate behavior charges—for the season. The 1999 Rams were coming off a 4–12 season and lost starting quarterback Trent Greene to a season-ending knee injury at training camp. Houston is turning things around at Tyrod Taylor, a quarterback who has a track record of ability in the past, while the Rams were forced to insert 28-year-old backup Kurt Warner, who had 11 career regular-season pass attempts. .
Well, you know what happened next for Warner and those Rams. I don't think Taylor is going to win the league MVP, but the Texans have a better roster than people can credit when general manager Nick Casario helped literally dozens of Giants sign offseason for one- and two-year deals. Spent. Of the 53 players that camped out the Houston roster, the year before, many were not on the roster, and many of those players are veterans with meaningful NFL experience.
The Texans don't have a real upside to competing for the Super Bowl — and I don't know what their long-term vision looks like — but they do have a plausible path to looking capable. If they stumble upon a Hall of Fame quarterback along the way, they've got a shot.
Chance to win Super Bowl LVI: Less than 0.1%
Chance to make the playoffs: 8.8%
New Jets coach Robert Saleh saw a team make the most of the Super Bowl when the 49ers jumped 13-3 from 4-12 in 2019 and came just a few stops short of defeating the Chiefs. For all talk of Kyle Shanahan's brilliant offense, it was Saleh's second-ranked defense (by DVOA) that pushed the 49ers to a championship that season. It only takes one look at the roster to see that Saleh doesn't have the same types of players in New York that he once had in San Francisco, but keep in mind that he's dealt with each of the league's most injured defensive rosters. Is. In the last two years and still delivered top-10 units.
This time, however, Saleh will probably need guilt to take the lead. Matt LaFleur turned the Packers around quickly, and now his brother Mike — the Jets' new offensive coordinator — will try to do the same here. Gang Green added a variety of receivers for first-year quarterback Zach Wilson, and the bar is low to impress after Sam Darnold's struggle under Adam Gase, but it took Wilson one of the greatest rookies in league history to advance. Has to be one of the seasons. team in a deep playoff run.
Chance to win Super Bowl LVI: Less than 0.1%
Chance to make the playoffs: 7.8%
It's difficult for the pass defense to be as bad as the Lions were in the past two seasons. Under defensive specialist Matt Patricia, he allowed opposing quarterbacks to post a passer rating of 105.7, meaning the average passer he faced, as well as a typical Russell Wilson, started on the same time frame. . New defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn did an excellent job of bringing in young secondary talent into his time with the Saints, and there's a chance he could get a lot more out of the team with players like Trey Flowers, Michael Brockers and the 2020 No. . Choose Jeff Okudah.
If the defense makes an unexpected rise in the charts, Detroit could be really tough. It must have had one of the league's best offensive lines defending Jared Goff, who was an effective passer when given time to throw in Los Angeles. A capable Lions team will probably struggle to win the NFC North, but the rest of their division steers away from potential turmoil if a quarterback decision or news conference is wrong. It's probably not going to happen, but at least, I made a promise to myself that I'd go through this entire blurb without even mentioning suffocating.
Chance to win Super Bowl LVI: 0.1%
Chance to make the playoffs: 14.6%
There is a jump between the bottom three and this next level, as it is too easy for the Bengals to make way for a deep playoff run. You can go back to Carson Palmer's second season as Cincinnati starter in 2005 to think how quickly things could turn for the young quarterback, odds for these Bengals hopeful 2020 No. 1 overall pick Joe Burrows. Already he has a serious knee injury through. If Burrow is back and closer to the man he saw at LSU in 2019, few quarterbacks in the league are going to have a more promising trio of wideouts than Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and rookie top-five Jammer Chase.
I'm less optimistic about the defense, though the 2020 free-agent additions Trai Vance and D.J. Pathak should make more of an impression after playing a combined five games for the Bengals last season. The path to a division title will be unclear and will likely require some disappointing performances from other quarterbacks at AFC North, but Cincinnati has significant upside in a way that not teams below it.
Chance to win Super Bowl LVI: 0.1%
Chance to make the playoffs: 14.8%
I'm optimistic about the 2021 Jaguars, but the journey from 1-15 to the Super Bowl will be the biggest leap forward in modern NFL history. No rookie quarterback has ever made it to the Super Bowl as his team's season-long starter, although in 1999 Kurt Warner was close enough given his limited track record. Then again, there aren't many true freshman quarterbacks who lead their teams to national championships, and Trevor Lawrence did the same at Clemson in the 2018 season. It's hard to think of a quarterback who comes with a more impressive resume than the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL, and that kind of ability can transform a franchise.
Of course, Jags fans don't need to think about the past to remember the sudden change. The 2016 Jaguars went 3-13 before going 10-6 the next season. They won the AFC South, defeated the Bills and Steelers in the playoffs and came within a blazing call to go up 17 points over the Patriots in the fourth quarter of the AFC Championship Game. He pitted Blake Bortles at quarterback with a great defense. The formula will not be the same, but the Jags could exceed expectations again in 2021.
Chance to win Super Bowl LVI: 0.2%
Chance to make the playoffs: 19.2%
The last time Philly's starting quarterback entered his second season in the league, the Eagles won the Super Bowl and didn't even need Carson Wentz to finish the job. I don't think the Eagles have that kind of upside this season with Jalen Hirts as a starter, but the Eagles were one of the most likely teams in the league before coming back on the same list again last month.
One key thing to take away from that surprising 2017 season is how important it is to come up with a plum spot in the playoffs. The Eagles were 11-2 and were already in top position as the top seed when Wentz injured his knee, and while quarterback Nick Foles was not good enough to end the season, he was the top seed in the NFC. , netted one bye in the first round and two home playoff games.
The Eagles aren't a great team on paper this season, but what if the NFC East is terrible again and they sweep the division going 6-5 against the last-place schedule? That could be enough of another first-round bye, and if the Foles can win the Super Bowl, anything can happen.
Chance to win Super Bowl LVI: 0.2%
Chance to make the playoffs: 17.0%
Have the Raiders finally settled their defense? John Gruden's offenses have been playoff-caliber over the years, but the much-maligned Vegas defense hasn't been able to live up to the bargain. Things could be different this off-season with the addition of coordinators Gus Bradley and players like Yannick Ngakou and Casey Hayward. Clearly, given that the Raiders have been ranked 30th, 31st, 31st and 28th in the defensive DVOA over the past four years, it won't take much to mark a truly astonishing development.
The Raiders have a massive landmine over Patrick Mahomes and the AFC West in the Chiefs, but their chances of surprising everyone and making the Super Bowl are probably also strongly correlated with a disappointing Chiefs season. There's a chance the Raiders could suddenly go 13-4 and fight a 12-5 Chiefs team atop the division, but if Vegas wins their division, that's a possibility Mahomes is missing for most of the season as well.
Chance to win Super Bowl LVI: 0.3%
Chance to make the playoffs: 23.4%
A third-year quarterback making an unexpected, historic transformation into an elite passer? I'm not optimistic about Daniel Jones making the leap to Josh Allen last season, but again, I wasn't expecting Allen to turn into an MVP candidate. Jones certainly has a lot of weapons to work with, although he will need a second year tackling Andrew Thomas to live up to his billing as a top-five pick after an uneventful rookie season.
The defense is likely to be up for the job, especially if Leonard Williams continues to play at Pro Bowl level after his suddenly productive 2020 season. Then, as was the case with the Eagles, it's easier for the Giants to make way for the playoffs in the NFC East than it is for a team like the Raiders in the AFC West. As a result, even though their chances of winning the Super Bowl are relatively equal, the Giants' chances of making the playoffs are about 38% higher.
Chance to win Super Bowl LVI: 0.4%
Chance to make the playoffs: 21.9%
Another team that I expect to improve this season, the Falcons have far more upside than the FPI believes. I am optimistic about the addition of coach Arthur Smith and defensive coordinator Dean Pease and I think this team was much better than their late-game downfall last season and what the final record suggests. In the right splits and the right conditions, the Falcons will be the favorites to make immediate changes and win the NFC South in 2021.
It may not be the right partition or the right circumstances. Atlanta is the only team in the league to have seven home games, which would hurt their chances of finishing top seed in the NFC. It is also in Division One with Tom Brady unquestionably hungry to win the Division title after failing to do so for the first time since 2002. (I guess winning a Super Bowl made for disappointment.) Brady looks distressed, but it's time to father every other quarterback before him. If that happens this season, the South will be wide open, leaving a window for the Falcons to pursue their own division title.
Chance to win Super Bowl LVI: 0.6%
Chance to make the playoffs: 25.7%
With the Khalil Mack-led pass Rush and the seasoned prowess of Andy Dalton, it's easy to see a scenario in which Bear Serpent... well, I'm not going to pretend with that. The hope here should be that overall number 11 pick Justin Fields gets the opening job early and converts the Bears to the offensive side of the ball. We've seen rookie quarterbacks inspire sudden improvements in the past, including Russell Wilson in Seattle and Robert Griffin in Washington, but neither of those seasons won a championship.
If you can somehow combine the Bears' defense from 2018 with a rookie season for the ages from Fields, Matt Nagy's team will look like a Super Bowl contender. It's not a rescue from 2018, however, and the field isn't even in the starting lineup yet. As much as he can inspire this team, the Bears will also need an older season from Mack and Akim Hicks to really threaten the rest of the NFC. (Aaron Rodgers, who is retiring to host Jopardi, will also help out.)
Chance to win Super Bowl LVI: 0.7%
Chance to make the playoffs: 29.0%
In 2013, Matt Roulette took over as coach at Temple and went 2–10. In the following season, he went 6–6 with a consecutive 10-winning season. After moving to Baylor in 2017, Roulette inherited a grudge and went 1-11 in his first season. His Bears were 7-6 the next year and 11-3 the next campaign before leaving for the NFL. As you can see, the guy has a track record of taking on new jobs, struggling in Year 1, and improving significantly in subsequent seasons.
Rhule's Panthers actually surpassed their 5-11 record from a year earlier, so they're closer than you might think. The big question is whether Sam Darnold might look like a different quarterback than the guy who faltered without much help from the Jets. A resurgent Darnold and some regression towards Mean after a seven-intercept season by the defense in 2020 will give the Panthers enough juice to become a threat in the NFC South. Like the Falcons, their most obvious path to a home playoff game requires Tom Brady to fall off a cliff.
Chance to win Super Bowl LVI: 0.8%
Chance to make the playoffs: 31.4%
A year ago, it looked like the Cardinals were on their way to the Super Bowl after Hale Murray's 6-3 draw against the Bills, but injuries to Kyler Murray and star Age rusher Chandler Jones helped drag them down. Last seven weeks of the season. The two are back, and while franchise legend Patrick Peterson is gone, Jones is replaced by future Hall of Famer J.J. Watt. An offense that cried for speed also added a high-upside down player in second-round wideout Rondell Moore.
Back in their former stomping ground of the NFC East, an 8–8 season for the Cardinals would have been good enough to win the division. Instead, they were ranked third in the NFC West in 2020. With the 49ers hoping to return to form and the Rams adding Matthew Stafford, the competition is not going to be easy. Arizona could be in the running for the title if Murray goes to Supernova, but winning a division title could be the hardest part of a special season for Cliff Kingsbury's team.
Chance to win Super Bowl LVI: 0.8%
Chance to make the playoffs: 32.8%
We saw last season what a Steelers run might look like, when a swarming defense, some luck in close games and just enough of an offense to give opposing defenses problems led them to start 11-0. As you can guess, what happened next is why this team is down here at No. 20: It lost five of its next six games and got bounced from the playoffs while Ben Roethlisberger looked like his arm was melting. Cap issues and retirements cost the Steelers talent this offseason, leaving them with one of the league's worst offensive lines on paper heading into the 2021 season.
It's pretty easy to envision what one final run for the Steelers under Roethlisberger might look like. The defense leads the league in takeaways, the new line coalesces quickly, rookie first-round pick Najee Harris takes some of the workload off of Roethlisberger and their trio of star wide receivers does the rest. It was good enough to keep them undefeated into November last season; this time, the formula has to endure all the way through February. FPI projects Pittsburgh to face the second-toughest schedule in football, so if it's challenging for a championship, it will have earned it.
Chance to win Super Bowl LVI: 1.1%
Chance to make the playoffs: 40.8%
Meanwhile, the Broncos will face the easiest-to-guess schedule of FPIs. Imagine how hard it is to pull off when you have to play the lead twice! Big Story Out of Camp Teddy Bridgewater has won the starting quarterback job over Drew Locke, but this team is more likely to thrive or fail in defense of Vic Fangio. In addition to getting Von Miller back after the legendary Edge Rusher missed 2020 due to an ankle injury, the Broncos overhauled their corners by signing former Fangio charge Kyle Fuller and using their first-round pick on Pat Suren II .
Bridgewater wasn't able to prop up the Panthers team with a disappointing defense in several wins last season, but while he's blessed with stellar defenses in Minnesota and New Orleans, he's done enough to keep his end of the bargain. Taking offense with a top-five Broncos defense and young players can be scarier than ever going forward in the season. Not as intimidating as the Chiefs, perhaps, but it's the most rooftop Broncos team since the Peyton Manning era.
Chance to win Super Bowl LVI: 1.1%
Chance to make the playoffs: 38.9%
The Chargers usually have at least one superstar for the season or are out indefinitely with a mysterious injury by the time training camp ends, so it's a refreshing turn of events to see his original appearance. And is responsible for going into the regular season. New coach Brandon Staley helped turn the odds in his favor by following in the footsteps of Sean McVay and following stars Justin Herbert, Darwin James and Joey Bossa for the entire preseason. Chargers fans — if not the wider universe — deserve to see at least one game in which players from one of the league's best rosters are actually on the field at the same time.
On paper, of course, chargers look great. General Manager Tom Telesco made a massive upgrade on the league's worst line from pass block win rate in 2020 by signing Corey Linsley and Matt Feeler and using a first-round pick to tackle Rashon Slater. Staley is inexperienced, but the 38-year-old was a revelation in his lone season as the Rams' defensive coordinator. The Chiefs stand in the way at AFC West, but the Chargers took the Chiefs into overtime at Herbert's debut last September. The debut came a short time after the team doctor punctured Tyrod Taylor's lung before the game; To become a Super Bowl contender this season, the Chargers have to stop being their worst enemy.
Chance to win Super Bowl LVI: 1.2%
Chance to make the playoffs: 41.1%
The path to winning the Super Bowl for Washington is almost the same as the Bucs took to their Super Bowl win last season. Tampa went 7-9 in 2019 with a defense that looked great by the advanced metrics and conventional ones in general (or worse), all for reasons outside coordinator Todd Bowles' control. Jameis Winston's blocking habit left a defense that was ranked sixth by the DVOA for too many drives on the field. The Bucs replaced Winston last offseason with a much more stable Brady, who made a more efficient offense and didn't hang out to cheapen the defense. The final award followed.
Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't exactly Brady, but he's a huge upgrade for a team that a year ago finished last in passing the QBR. Ron Rivera's team finished third in the defensive DVOA, but a completely absent passing attack took Washington to 7–9. A losing record probably won't be enough to win the NFC East again, but if Fitzpatrick is an above average starter for a fourth consecutive season, this team won't have to worry about breaking into the playoffs under .500. Will be
Chance to win Super Bowl LVI: 1.8%
Chance to make the playoffs: 54.3%
Colts are being torn apart by injuries; While they would be happy to have Carson Wentz and Kwenton Nelson back with leg injuries as the season begins, T.Y. Hilton is out indefinitely after neck surgery. They have a deep roster, but they don't have a lot of star-level talent; Nelson is their best player and Wentz is their most important player. If those people re-injure their legs or come back to less than 100 percent, Indianapolis will not be able to recover.
If the big names live up to the expectations, however, the Colts have the pieces to be favorites in the AFC South. Wentz was a disaster in 2020, but before that campaign he was considered a top-12 quarterback. I think he can bounce back behind a better offensive line, although the left tackle remains a question until Eric Fischer is ready to play. They will be solid across the board – and we know they can beat the best teams in football in their day – but doing so consistently for the Colts and challenging for the conference title will see a real return to form from Wentz.
Chance to win Super Bowl LVI: 2.1%
Chance to make the playoffs: 45.4%
Strange Years Vikings! Minnesota has gone 34-14 (.708) under Mike Zimmer in odd years, but only 30-33-1 (.477) in even years, including 7-9 last season. Disappointingly for one of the league's best defensive coaches, it was the defense this team made. After ranking less than 11th in points allowed in any season under Zimmer, the Vikings finished 29th. Injuries and COVID-19 opt-outs kept their stars off the field, as Danielle Hunter, Anthony Barr, Michael Pierce and Eric Kendrick played just 13 games throughout the season.
Enter the Cavalry: Vikings join Dalvin Tomlinson, Sheldon Richardson, Xavier Woods, Bassaud Breeland and Patrick Peterson this off-season. Everything seems on the table for them. If the returning Giants fix the defense and -- insert annual text here -- the offensive line is finally settled, they could have one of the most talented and comprehensive rosters in the league. If defensive vets don't close the holes, rookie Christian Darrisaw struggles to make a comeback from his groin injury in the first round and Zimmer Kirk turns on Cousins, could be the sub-.500 and this year's Eagles. Huh.
Chance to win Super Bowl LVI: 2.2%
Chance to make the playoffs: 45.5%
The Saints aren't as deep as they were in previous years due to their lack of pay-caps, but outside of the injured Michael Thomas and retired Drew Brees, the original talent is still here. With a superstar on defense and one of the league's most talented offensive lines, Sean Peyton can turn the Saints into a team that wins—at least until Thomas comes back—by playing defense and driving the ball effectively. They're not going to be the legends of the 1990s, but after fielding a hyper-skilled, near-happy attack with Breeze over the years, they could be more of a run-heavy, downfield passing attack with Jameis Winston.
If floors and ceilings looked huge for the Vikings, it is downright huge for Winston, whose first full season under Peyton as starter will be one of the season's more lucrative watches. If Winston really harnesses his talents and eliminates half of his inhibitions, the Saints could look like a team that went 38-10 over the past three seasons. If Winston is his old self and the Saints face 14-15 drives per game on defense with a thin roster, things will be a lot more hopeless.
Chance to win Super Bowl LVI: 2.4%
Chance to make the playoffs: 53.4%
The Patriots are going to try to win a Super Bowl with their inexperienced quarterback, following the same formula they used in 2001. That team was deep with talented front-seven contributors, ran the ball past a solid offensive line and asked their young quarterback to keep them in games by defending the football. Tom Brady had his ups and downs, but after three turnovers in a loss to the Rams to take the Patriots 5–5, Brady and the Pats bowled the ball just eight times in the ensuing nine games. He won all nine and was upset with the same rams with a Super Bowl.
It would be a big question for first-round pick Mac Jones to make it to the Super Bowl in his first season as a starter, but the Patriots have a credible argument. No team lost more than a COVID-19 opt-out in 2020, and after several years of middle and disappointing selections at the top of the draft, Bill Belichick went on the biggest buying spree in franchise history this off-season. At least 11 of New England's 22 starting players could be players who were not on the roster last season. Belichick's track record of getting the most out of players needs no introduction.
Chance to win Super Bowl LVI: 2.5%
Chance to make the playoffs: 54.3%
The Patriots offshoot being created in Miami by former New England assistant Brian Flores has similar ideas, and after going tanking 10-6 from 2019 last season, Dolphins fans have playoff hopes this upcoming season. Tua Tagovailoa didn't look like the highly coveted quarterback we saw coming out of Alabama in his rookie season, but I hope things will be different in a new plan and a year ahead with his serious hip injury removed .
Sealing Tagovailoa for the Dolphins depends on rookie first-round receivers Jaylen Waddle and Xavian Howard, whose primary concern is to stay on the field as one of the league's best defensive players. We've seen quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Carson Wentz, and Lamar Jackson ride out the second season largely for MVP-caliber performances. Two of his teams won the Super Bowl. It may be too simple, but if Tagovailoa makes similar progress, it will hardly be surprising that the dolphins followed suit.
Chance to win Super Bowl LVI: 2.5%
Chance to make the playoffs: 57.0%
It's tempting to say that the Cowboys were drowned last season by Duck Prescott's ankle injury or the absence of several star offensive linemen, but even if you put offense aside, the Dallas defense team was going nowhere. . No defending team in the league made as many mental mistakes or was as sloppy, and the Cowboys replaced coordinator Mike Nolan after one season with former Atlanta coach Dan Quinn. Quinn's Falcons teams weren't exactly defensive giants, but if he can make Dallas capable on defense as well, that would be a huge step in the right direction.
If the offense lives up to expectations, a mediocre defense will be enough to make the Cowboys a viable Super Bowl contender. It should be no offense to have more talent coming back from injury than this in the league, but the stars who lost time last season are already dealing with issues. Prescott lost time at camp with a mysterious shoulder injury. He's back to full health, but Tyrone Smith is dealing with a groin issue, L'El Collins makes it back to practice after dealing with a stinger and Jack Martin for Thursday's opener against the Bucs dropped out after he tested positive for COVID-19. . The list of Cowboys names on offense should scare off the opposing strongholds, but they must take the field together before this team can do anything more than dream.
Chance to win Super Bowl LVI: 2.6%
Chance to make the playoffs: 59.9%
We know Titans can beat their major opponents in AFC. Over the past two seasons, they have blown the Bills 26, defeated the Chiefs in a 35–32 shootout and won two of their three fights against the Ravens. They have also lost to the Bengals and Jaguars, which is a quick reminder of how disappointing Mike Wrabel's team can be week after week. Before he was discovered by Patrick Mahomes two years ago, the Titans were able to ride a major stretch from the red zone defense to the AFC Championship game before Derrick Henry and a few well-off red zone defenses. We know they are a team that nobody would want to play in January.
If they make it to January, though, do the Titans have any hope of slowing down to someone like Mahomes or Josh Allen? General Manager John Robinson flipped his defensive spending this season, redecorating most of that money for Bud Dupree while cutting out most of the underperforming secondary. The former Steelers standout should give the Titans a lead edge rusher they didn't have a year ago when Jadevon Clooney struggled, but can the facelift remain secondary for the entire playoff run?
Chance to win Super Bowl LVI: 4.6%
Chance to make the playoffs: 63.2%
You looked like a Seahawks Super Bowl contender for the first half of last season, when Russell Wilson was the starting shoo-in for MVP and Seattle started 6-1. Reality hit with a 2-3 stretch, and while the defense tightened up and helped it win the final five games of the year, the same offense that scored more than 30 points in seven of its first eight games, just once in the final. Eight topped 30, and even that required help from the Jets.
It would be too simplistic for a standard prediction to say that the Seahawks would be great by combining their offense from the first half and defense from the second half, but if we were to predict how they might win the Super Bowl, there for Wilson & Co. This is the most logical way to get there. The move to appoint Rams assistant Shane Waldron as offensive coordinator may add pain to the opening season, but if Wilson is clicking on all cylinders as the playoffs approach, no one knows what happened in September. Won't care.
Chance to win Super Bowl LVI: 5.2%
Chance to make the playoffs: 68.7%
Matt Ryan in 2016. Aaron Rodgers in 2020. Two quarterbacks who dramatically improved their performances and worked out the Kubiak/Shanahan plan won the league MVP in their second season. Guess who's about to enter his second year in that crime? Baker Mayfield has already made great strides in his first season under Kevin Stefanski, and in a crucial season for the No. 1 overall pick of 2018, he will take back Odell Beckham Jr. .
The Browns got better as the season progressed in 2020 and made huge investments in their defense this season to center the weak spots. I doubt everything will go according to plan for him, but there is no denying that he can have some really impressive talent on either side of the ball if things go right. If the Ravens don't live up to expectations and the AFC North race goes easier than planned, the Browns could be in a position to compete with the Chiefs for the AFC first round alone.
Chance to win Super Bowl LVI: 5.3%
Chance to make the playoffs: 64.9%
The Rams made two first-round picks, nearly $25 million in dead cap space and whatever money they're going to pay to pay Matthew Stafford on an extension, much better than former Lions quarterback Jared Goff. I'm inclined to agree, but Ram was also convinced that two years ago Goff was his guy, to give him a massive expansion at the first available opportunity. It's entirely possible the Rams will win that 13-3 slugfest with the Patriots in Super Bowl LIII if Stafford is their signal-caller.
Not that the Rams team, though, and when they've added Jalen Ramsey to the fold, this team is missing out on years of top draft picks and plenty of cap space. Appropriately for his hometown, this is a team of superstars. If Stafford, Ramsey, Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Andrew Whitworth and Leonard Floyd are world-winners, they would be great. They're already turning Cam Akers down for a torn Achilles, and we saw how thin the defense immediately looked without Donald when he was confined in a playoff loss to the Packers. Sean McVay's team will go as far as their star players take them.
Chance to win Super Bowl LVI: 5.6%
Chance to make the playoffs: 68.5%
Three of the last four teams on this list are from the NFC West, which gives you an idea of how talented and how tough this division should be in 2021. The FPI seems to like the 49ers a bit more than the competition, though I'm not sure how it feels about the debate between Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance. Whatever competition there was, it is now settled by default with Lance suffering a finger injury; The 49ers will guarantee Garoppolo's $25 million compensation for 2021, placing him on the active roster for Week 1.
Will the 49ers try to take away the Alex Smith/Patrick Mahomes approach to the Chiefs from 2017? Or will it be like the 2012 Smith/Colin Kaepernick season in San Francisco, when Kaepernick came in for an injured Smith and he never returned to work? I think it might be something more like the Ravens' Joe Flacco/Lamar Jackson situation in 2018, where Jackson was used early in the season for some packages, eventually ending up with an injury later in the season. Before coming for Flacco. The Lance undoubtedly offers a high ceiling, but given that Garoppolo came within a deep finale of winning the Super Bowl two years ago, the floor isn't too bad with the incumbent either.
Chance to win Super Bowl LVI: 6.1%
Chance to make the playoffs: 69.7%
It's easy to discount the Ravens as a great team with a fatal postseason flaw. Since Lamar Jackson took over as Baltimore's starting quarterback in mid-2018, the Ravens have gone 30-7 in the regular season, which would be just short of 14 wins in a 17-game season. They've also gone 1-3 in the postseason, and while I think I'll pin the 2019 divisional-round loss to the Titans with sloppy play from receivers and unfortunately more than anything, the offense just doesn't. The work done in his three losses has been done. It's not hard to find people who would be happy to write off Jackson & Co in January.
And yet, teams like this still break through. Peyton Manning lost his first three playoff games by a combined score of 83–33 and then began to look like his kryptonite in his New England defense. The Colts twice lost to the Pats in the playoffs, were upset by the Steelers as the 8.5-point favorite at home in the subsequent season, and then... recorded four straight wins in the following postseason to give Manning his first Super Bowl defeat. Key, patriots on the way. Flacco was terrible in three season-ending losses and then Lee Evans saw what would be a career-defining touchdown against the Patriots for the fourth. He went on to win the Super Bowl the following season for one of the best post seasons in league history. It may seem like the Jacksons and the Ravens are stuck, but they will eventually break up if they make it to the playoffs.
Chance to win Super Bowl LVI: 6.6%
Chance to make the playoffs: 70.5%
It's easy, isn't it? The Packers have made it to the NFC Championship Game in consecutive seasons, and while their losses to the 49ers in 2019 were extensive, their narrow defeats at the hands of Brady and Tampa Bay last season were the tightest of the margins and required some unspeakable caretaker throughout. during the competition. Matt LaFleur's decision to down the field goal to eight in the fourth quarter has already become a meme and would suggest his game management is a concern, but it seems like a strange aberration for a coach. Which was correct in terms of league average. Fourth place aggression last season.
I'm on record to suggest that the Packers won't top their 13 wins from a year ago, but barring Rodgers' injury, they should still compete for one of the top spots in the NFC. The offensive line is a valid concern as Corey Linsley went to Los Angeles and David Bakhtiari was out on the PUP list for at least six weeks, but by the time Bakhtiari returned for the stretch run, the Packers had to replace their star quarterback. Must be able to defend. . We've seen the offense fine the past two seasons even without Davante Adams. It would hardly be a surprise to see Green Bay make a third consecutive trip to the NFC Championship Game; Let's just hope Rodgers' coach doesn't take the key out of his hands again.
Chance to win Super Bowl LVI: 9.4%
Chance to make the playoffs: 79.0%
Similarly, with the 2020 AFC Championship game falling short of the bill, which appears to suggest a fall in 2021, it would hardly be a surprise if they won 11-12 games and still made it back to the conference finals. Gave. Josh Allen has improved as much as any quarterback in recent league history in his first three seasons, and there is nothing off the tape or number one to suggest his 2020 performance was tentative. If anything, considering how much better he has achieved in his first three seasons, it would be foolish to rule out the possibility that he will get even better in 2021.
In what would have been a bizarre sentence to write a year or two ago, Bill will be hoping that his defense doesn't require Allen and the crime to be committed again in 2021. Tre'Davious White & Co. In second place is the defensive DVOA in 2018, but they fell to seventh in 2019 and 12th in 2012. Unsurprisingly, the Bills invested heavily on the defensive side of the ball this season, re-signing linebacker Matt Milano to use his top two draft picks on the Edge rushers. Blessed with what is now one of the deepest defensive lines in football, Buffalo's route to the Super Bowl will probably require a game in which the front faces the seven chiefs and, roughly guesses, the Tampa Front. What Seven did to the Mahomes in Super Bowl LV.
Chance to win Super Bowl LVI: 14.1%
Chance to make the playoffs: 85.6%
You don't have to tell me the scenario in which the Buccaneers win the Super Bowl, because you just saw a similar roster that's scheduled to roll out in 2021, destroying the Chiefs at the end of last season. The most significant loss to Tampa from the 2020 roster is utility offensive lineman Joe Hague, who played 12% of offensive snaps and was most memorable for skipping a touchdown in the Super Bowl. If Tom Brady needs a substitute on the goal line to replace Hague, he can go to O.J. Howard, who has come back from a torn Achilles.
Bringing everyone back isn't always a successful strategy for a Super Bowl winner, but the Bucks were a great team even during the regular season. Tampa ranks second in the DVOA behind the Saints, and the gap between those two teams can mostly be chalked up to New Orleans having better special teams. There's no foolproof way to get back to the Super Bowl—and the Bucs will be vulnerable if Brady falls off the proverbial cliff at 44—but it's a risk that Bruce Arian's team will be happy to take.
Chance to win Super Bowl LVI: 19.2%
Chance to make the playoffs: 89.4%
They have Patrick Mahomes.