Will this magic run by the Atlanta Hawks end right here in the NBA playoffs, or will Trae Young & Co. make another upset against the Milwaukee Bucks?
It's an Eastern Conference matchup no one predicted, with the upstart Hawks - before the famous 14-20 named Nate McMillan as interim head coach and started their run in the playoffs - two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo and Taking on the Bucks, who needed overtime in Game 7 to beat the Brooklyn Nets.
What can Young and the Hawks do if they commit an offense against the best defense in the league? Does Atlanta have an answer for Giannis?
Our experts break down each team's route to the series and the keys that could decide who reaches the NBA Finals.
Pre-Finals: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Atlanta Hawks
How the Bucks got here:
The Bucks built the last seven months to the point where, when they got into the crucible of a tough playoff series, they would have the means to come out victorious on the other side.
He traded for point guard Jrue Holiday in the off-season and PJ Tucker on the deadline, adding defensive versatility and toughness. He spent the season experimenting more with different lineups and styles, in order to have different options for throwing at opponents in the postseason.
And, ultimately, Milwaukee found itself hosting Atlanta in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Wednesday night because it was good enough to do so.
The Bucks took every ounce of what they had—plus a few significant injuries to the Nets, and Kevin Durant was wearing an extra-sized shoe—for Milwaukee in his heart-stopping Eastern Conference match against Brooklyn. To avoid a semi-final series, winning Game 7 on Saturday Night Road in overtime.
Things looked like they could be completely different for the Bucks this season after surviving another overtime thriller to start the playoffs with a win over the Miami Heat — the team that won them the last Walt Disney franchise. World Resort was dropped in the NBA bubble. Summer - Milwaukee beat Miami in the next three games to knock the Heat out of the playoffs.
It was an impressive performance, and unsurprisingly, given that the Heat was a popular upset pick. But it gave Milwaukee enough momentum to go with Brooklyn in its chain.
Then, in 43 seconds in the Eastern Conference semifinals, James Harden closed Barclays Center Court with a hamstring strain, removing one of Brooklyn's Big Three from the equation. But the Nets not only survived with a win in Game 1, they eliminated Milwaukee in Game 2, sending the Bucks home, facing the real possibility of all the work the team had done to prepare for the moment. did.
Milwaukee served at home, however, winning the series twice in the evening, and the Nets caught another bad break when Kyrie Irving sprained his right ankle in Game 4. Nevertheless, Brooklyn pushed Milwaukee to the brink once again in Game 5, thanks to Harden making a surprise return to the court (and playing 46 minutes) and Durant putting together a performance that caused Antetokounmpo to call Durant "the world". Best player of all time".
But after the kind of heartbreak that would have broken Bucks' previous teams, Milwaukee showed exactly why it spent all of its time building. The Bucks went back home and won again on their home court in Game 6, only to come back several times in that Game 7 to barely avoid another spectacular Durant performance, a very special one from Antetokounmpo himself. Sometime Shot—Banana from khris Middleton and Holiday.
Now, largely healthy — save for Donete DiVincenzo, out for the playoffs after ankle surgery — Milwaukee is the favorite to win its first NBA title in a half-century. First, though, the Bucks would need to overtake the upstart Hawks, which would propel them to the finals for the first time since 1975.
How the Hawks got here:
The fifth-seeded Hawks just won't go away. It was the same in their first-round matchup against the New York Knicks, and it continued in their series against the Philadelphia 76ers. It took them seven games, but they were only able to advance to their second conference final in 50 seasons with three road wins over the Sixers.
Trae Young continued his stellar run in the playoffs, averaging 29.0 points—nearly double that of John Collins (15.1), who was second on the team—as well as 10.9 assists. Young became the first player in NBA history to score 12 consecutive playoff games with at least 20 points and seven assists. He did so in his first 12 playoff games. The very beginning.
Collins has also been instrumental for Atlanta throughout the playoffs. In all three games when Collins has scored in the single digits in the playoffs, the Hawks have lost. Against the Sixers, Collins also came up with 10.0 rebounds per game.
Before the series against Philadelphia, it was announced that forward D'Andre Hunter was going to miss the remainder of the playoffs due to a torn meniscus that required surgery. As with Hunter, the Hawks initially went with Solomon Hill in the starting lineup before moving on to Kevin Huerter.
It was Huerter who came up with the biggest in Atlanta's series-cleaning win in Game 7. After going scoreless in Game 5 in Philadelphia two games earlier, Huerter went on to a playoff-career-high 27 points in the same building where he had set his overall career high as a rookie in 2018-19 (29). .
Huerter said that Joel Embiid even joked with him during Game 7 about how well he played at the Wells Fargo Center.
Along with Young, Collins and Huerter, the Hawks continued to receive double-digit scoring attempts in the series from Danilo Gallinari (14.7), Bogdan Bogdanovic (13.3) and Clint Capela (10.6) - and that does not include Lou Williams. , who averaged double digits in 24 regular-season games with Atlanta and 13 second-half points in a crucial Game 5 win over Philly.
So when Atlanta tries to count on Young once again, a balanced effort behind him will be the Hawks' best bet if they want to make their first trip to the NBA Finals since 1961.
Series Keys: The Bucks Tray Stopper, and Why the Hawks Need to Grow Downtown
In his only matchup this season, against Milwaukee, on April 15, Young had arguably his worst game of the season: 3-for-17 from the floor - 0-for-3 from beyond the arc - with six turnovers. The Hawks lost by 11 points at home.
What happened? Jew holiday happened.
The Bucks took on Holiday for his excellent defense, and if he can even slow down Young in this series, Milwaukee will have a big chance of making the finals. Bucks fans have reason to be convinced here.
If that April matchup was a sign of things to come, Milwaukee is sitting pretty. According to Second Spectrum Tracking, Holiday matched Young 48 times in that game, and Young only scored five points in those matchups. Young was able to get his floater four times in that game with Holiday as his defender, but he missed them all. All told, Young is 1-for-10 in his career when Holiday has been the closest defender on his shots.
Those terrifying numbers aren't sustainable for Young, but they're a great sign for the Bucks.
Simply put, there is no way Atlanta will win this series unless Young is putting up numbers. Even if he does, the Hawks have their work finished for them. Despite playing their first two series against the defending Eastern Conference champion Heat and Durant Nets, the Bucks still claim the best defensive rating among all postseason teams, giving away just 102.8 points per 100 possessions.
Scoring on boxes is a tall order, but if you can make 3s, you can do it. Milwaukee is famous for its clear view of the city, and when opponents take advantage of this, they can defeat the Bucks. It's a concept that has been shown to be true in these playoffs: the Bucks are 7-0 in the postseason when their opponents hit 12 or fewer 3-pointers; They are 1-3 when their enemies make more.
The bad news is that the Hawks' offense has exceeded that particular threshold just three times this post season, and Bogdanovic's position is precarious, and with D'Andre Hunter on the shelf, Atlanta has to face Huerter, Gallinari, and of course. Players like Se Young will be needed. Provide this team both high volume and reliable efficiency from downtown.
If those shooters can drop 30 tons, the Hawks can compete. If not, Milwaukee will go to the finals.