For six innings on Tuesday night, Blake Snell made San Diego Padres fans cheer every first-pitch fastball and stood on their feet for every two-strike wipeout slider. He put on a stellar performance through the Los Angeles Angels lineup, 18 up and 18 down, one of 10 through strikeouts.
For a second straight start, it was Snell who won the 2018 American League Cy Young Award with the Tampa Bay Rays—not only a pitcher with the best stuff of any left-hander in the majors, but with a command to dominate. He had bowled 66 pitches, for 51 strikes, did not count three balls on a single batsman and went for two balls off just two hitters.
Snell's streak of consecutive no-scoring innings sat at 13 after throwing seven hitless innings on his previous start. This Angels lineup—Shohe Ohtani and Jared Walsh were both getting days off—to put it frankly, was pretty disappointing. Checking the box score at the start of the seventh inning, not a single Angels hitter had .700 ops. The cleanup hitter was Jack Mayfield, a batsman with a career average of .195 in the Majors, picked up by the Angels via remission earlier in the season.
So, yes, a perfect play and a no-hitter not only seemed possible, but potential, not that you ever want to say too loudly at the moment. You never know when the baseball gods will be listening.
Snell turned in a disappointing season in August, mostly simply by skipping his change and throwing his slider more often. At the end of July, he was 4-4 with a 5.44 ERA and 1.61 WHIP and had played more than five innings only three times in 19 starts, including only one in seven innings. He increased his slider percentage from 21% to 31% in August and lowered his conversion percentage to 0.8%. It worked. He went 3-1 in the month with 1.72 ERA and 0.85 WHIP - including three starts in more than seven innings.
He was hovering at the top of the seventh against the Snell Angels.
After thirty-four pitches, however, the right game was gone, then the no-hitter and shutout were gone, and the game was eventually gone, as well, ending with a 4–0 Padres defeat at home. Snell ran David Fletcher on five pitches in seventh place. After Luis Rengifo retired on a bunt attempt and hit Phil Gosselin, Snell went to Mayfield. Both runners went to steal bases, and then Snell dropped a 1-2 slider to Joe Adele in the middle of the plate, and Adele lined up a two-run single to center field.
Snell finished the innings but fell one hit and one hit and missed out on becoming the sixth starting pitcher since 1990 with 14 consecutive hitless innings.
It also seemed like a crushing blow to the Padres' playoff hopes, one of heartbreaking defeats with the bitter taste of a spoiled fish taco. A rejuvenated Snell had rotation in August, with Yu Darvish forced into several bullpen games to cover for his back problems and injuries to the back of the rotation. With the Padres fighting for a second wild card—they're now tied with the Cincinnati Reds, with the Philadelphia Phillies two games behind and the St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets 3.5 games behind—the start of every snail suddenly feels like a must-win. Play.
"Tonight was as fast as we've seen him all year," Padres manager Jayce Tingler said of Snell. "It's disappointing to not get any runs on the board. You feel like you threw off an impressive performance from Blake.
"Bottom line: When he's pitching like this, he has to win."
Despite Snell's stellar run since early August, the Padres are only 3-4 in their debut.
"We need to win. Every start means a lot," Snell said.
The Padres' schedule is going to be perhaps the toughest part of any team's games this season. After another contest against the Angels, San Diego finished with 16 of 22 on the road with 22 games against the Los Angeles Dodgers (6), San Francisco Giants (10), Cardinals (3) and Atlanta Braves (3). it happens. Where the padres are 30-34.
Following last season's exciting playoff journey and then the off-season takeovers of Snell, Darvas and Joe Musgrove, it began as the most anticipated season in Padres history. Fernando Tatis Jr made an impressive comeback in the first three months from his initial shoulder injury and raised the expectation level even more. Now? Those series against the Dodgers in April that were staged with playoff-like intensity now looked like they were from a different season. The Padres are 24-33 since the beginning of July.
This is not to write to the Padres. Not that the Reds, Phillies, Cardinals or Mets are inspiring playoff confidence. Indeed, at the start of the game on Tuesday, FanGraph still gave the Padres the second-highest playoff odds of any of those teams.
Those chances will drop a bit after Tuesday's loss of San Diego and victory in Cincinnati, but projection systems like FanGraph still believe in the Padres' genius, even in the face of that tough schedule.
I have a little more doubt. The offense lacks the depth of the lineup that it had last season. With Tatis returning to a more human level of play after scoring 19 home runs in May and June and scoring 45 runs in 45 matches, the Padres need someone else to help take him on. Adam Frazier was his big trade deadline pickup, and he has hit .225 without a home run and three RBIs in 34 games with the Padres. Austin Nola's return from injuries was expected to provide more offense on the catcher, but he has one home run in 141 at-bats. Manny Machado's OPS is over 100 points from last season and down from .700 since early August.
Before we even get into rotation and an overworked bullpen.
For the first time in franchise history, Padres fans have learned that the burden of expectations makes every loss a little bit more. These final 23 games are going to end in brutal agony or the most joyous ride for Padres fans since the team reached the World Series in 1998. Tuesday's loss is not a good sign for the future.