Phoenix Suns: Lakers Writer Has the Suns Winning Game One
Don't let betting odds or sports media fool you: The Phoenix Suns are not the underdogs against the Los Angeles Lakers. The Suns are more than capable of winning this series, and I would strongly support the Suns to win game one for two reasons:
- 1. The Lakers and LeBron James have historically treated the game like pre-season games
- 2. The Sun's offensive strengths (midrange shooting and off-ball cutting) coincide with the Lakers' main defensive weaknesses.
We all forget: Sun was the only undefeated team inside the bubble last year. But the Lakers dropped the first game en route to both the Portland Trailblazers and the Houston Rockets on their way to the NBA Championship inside the bubble. For a second there, the Lake Show Life writers (myself included) thought that the Lakers were in trouble later, both indifferent attempts for game one (to put it mildly).
Then, the Lakers won the next four games easily. What was the difference between game one and another game? Lakers head coach Frank Vogel has always waited until the second game of the series to make his primary defensive adjustment for the entire series. Vogel likes to see the opponent's top strength in game one and then take it away for the rest of the series.
The Lakers will soon find that a trio of their centers (Andre Drummond, Montrezal Harrell and Mark Gasol) cannot defend the Sun pick-and-roll attack. Chris Paul and Devin Booker will receive wide open midrange shots as neither of those three have footwork or lateral quicks to provide an immediate driving lane.
Portland's Jusuf Nurkic and Robert Covington learned the hard way that you can't switch on Paul without paying a hefty price.
It’s the handles for us 🥵🥵 pic.twitter.com/YptbnghgXv
— Phoenix Suns (@Suns) May 14, 2021
Covington is a good defender, but he cannot accept the switch so soon!
Coach Vogel will not disappoint Lakers fans until he realizes that he needs to play Anthony Davis at center for this series. Davis at center would quickly take away the Suns' main advantage in this series - quickness - while still having enough size to hang on the boards. But as every Lake Show Life writer can tell you, Eddie does not want to play center.
Vogel has been clever to prevent Eddie from playing at center as his playing style makes him prone to injury (note how many times he falls to the floor whenever he goes up for a shot). Playing him at center full time is going to set him up more for injury.
The Lakers would hold off on taking Davis to center for as long as possible. My guess is that Vogel will wait until game two before moving into a smaller lineup, offering Phoenix and edge during the first competition of the series.
Analysis of Frank Vogel's adjustment to the previous series
Portland's Damian Lillard and Houston's James Harden made their way into the game with the Lakers defense whenever they played their standard drop coverage on defense (this is the same type of defense as anchoring the paint with Sun DeAndre Ayton Moves along).
Starting in game two, the Lakers ran a modified 2/2/1 half-court trap to get the ball out of the hands of Lillard and Harden. The two stars were in the double team almost every time they touched the ball down the court. Vogel used double teams with the intention of forcing Portland and Houston to do the least offense they wanted.
For Portland, lumbering center Jusuf Nurkic (who had not played since breaking his leg in March 2019) was forced to make plays in 3 of 4 scenarios. Portland had no other counter to build that would have kept them in the series.
For Houston, Russell Westbrook finished shooting out of Houston (and for a record-setting season for the Washington Wizards). The Lakers were sending the man from Westbrook to double-team James Harden as a whole.
Why can't the Lakers take advantage of the Sun like Portland or Houston?
But nothing of this sort happened in Game One, nor would it be so against ball handlers and shooters like Paul and Booker. I don't expect the Lakers to figure out how to slow down both Paul and Booker during game one.
Portland and Houston had players that the Lakers could take advantage of to create a suboptimal offensive possession. Similar to Nurkic, the Lakers can take advantage of Deandre Ayton's lack of ball handling at the center position.
However, Suns coach Monty Williams has the sharpness of the X and O to make sure the Lakers can't take advantage of Ayton's ball-handling or lack of an incredible jumper. We all know that the former Arizona Wildcats have trouble handling the ball in a boundary in three scenarios.
Coach Williams knows this and will make retrospective adjustments to allow the Lakers not to put Ayton in such a position. He would run his offense through Ayton at the elbow to set Paul or Booker on the side pick-and-roll. If Ayton catches the ball, he will be close enough to the basket to shoot it.
In addition, Mikal Bridges will get a number of open positions as LeBron James is defending him on a severely injured ankle. Even on a good day, LeBron makes defensive errors whenever he is defending a knowledgeable off-ball cutter.
But LeBron on a high ankle sprain, he would deal with cutting bridges into baskets and running down the court.
How many @mikal_bridges highlights are too many highlights?
— Phoenix Suns (@Suns) May 15, 2021
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐭 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐞𝐱𝐢𝐬𝐭 pic.twitter.com/DDrwFzpVKP
Even if Bridge doesn't get the ball, putting that type of offensive pressure on the Lakers will open things up for the other four Suns on the court.
What would be the Lakers' main adjustment in Game 2?
Taking Anthony Davis to the center. It is only a matter of when, if not, it is going to happen.
Lebron will be directly matched with Jae Crowder, which is a lot more stable than Bridge. The Lakers can switch the Paul / Booker ball screen with Ayton and slide on the weak side to help the defender cut the passing lane from Ayton.
Speaking of Ayton, how he screens the ball will be important! As he has done throughout the season, Ayton has to hold his screen long enough until the Lakers are forced to make the switch.
How the Suns will take advantage of the Lakers' main defensive weakness
Given the Lakers sport a larger frontline than any other team, it is quite dangerous that they rank near the bottom 10 in points in the paint per game. Lake Show Life has tried to determine why they leave so many marks in the paint. At this point, the scapegoat is over to blame the writers and fans. It was Mark Gasol's fault earlier this season, but now it's Andre Drummond.
Then it will be Dennis Schroder because he is not willing to do small things because he wants a contract reserved for the big working players. The Lakers are still the NBA's highest-rated defense - even with Anthony Davis injured for most of the season.
But the figures look very different from the team whose front court is bigger than anyone else:
19th place in points allowed in paint
16th place allowed in fast break points
5th in made field goals allowed (8th in FG%)
3rd in three-pointers allowed (4th in 3PT%)