In any European club season, it can take weeks or even months to get an accurate read on a given team, its strengths and its weaknesses. At Euro 2020, or any European Championships for that matter, we are only guaranteed to see each country's side three times.
In the early stages of a tournament like this, it can be difficult to pinpoint what we're looking for and what we've learned. As we prepare for the third and final matches of the group stage, let's sort it out. Who among the favorites continues to play well and who is still trying to figure things out?
Which player is most likely to turn a breakout performance into a big gig? And why is the big knockout stage of this tournament a good thing?
Even in the age of possession and pitch length pressure, there is still room for good old practicality in the international game. The lack of practice time, combined with a multiround, single-elimination tournament, can lead to the desire to play the lowest-common-divisor ball: defend well, take some risks, hope to be a talented attacker at some point. Makes something awesome, and moves on. It's working great for France.
God knows Italy can do this. Over the past 55 years, Catanasio's home team has reached four World Cup and three Euro finals, winning two former and one latter, while defending (and occasionally scoring) their hearts. That's the stereotype, and they live it often.
Except, that's not Italian football at the moment. Serie A teams averaged 1.53 goals per match in 2020-21, which is higher than La Liga (1.25) and the Premier League (1.35) and even the wide-open Bundesliga (1.52). Of these four leagues, only Bayern Munich scored more goals than the trio of Atalanta, Inter Milan and Napoli, and the top five teams in the table each scored at least 1.95 goals per match. Goals scored higher correlated with your total score than the goals allowed.
Twelve of the 26 players on Italy's Euro team come from those five teams. Only four played for a team outside Serie A. Hitting the ball and hitting the target: the new Italian DNA.
Through two matches in Euros, Italy has scored more goals (six) than anyone else and more chances (27) than everyone except Denmark. Their expected target (xG) total of 4.34 is just below the Netherlands. He has bad intentions with the ball and when he doesn't have the ball, the midfield haunts you until you give it back. Opponents have finished only 54 possessions in the attacking third, a feat Germany achieved against ultra-conservative France in a match last week. Their central defense is, to give it the charity, the old - 34-year-old Leonardo Bonucci and 36-year-old Giorgio Chiellini are the primary centre-backs, although Chiellini will miss Italy's third group-stage match on Sunday with a minor injury - but only Some fire is required to be extinguished, as opponents attempt only nine shots, one on goal.
To put it all another way, the Italians have so far surrounded Turkey (a popular sleeper pick) and Switzerland (a team with 18 players from the Big Five European leagues) by equal 3-0 margins. They are fluid, intense and unbeaten in 29 matches. They are not only playing well, they are sporting a style that suits them perfectly. Stored manager Roberto Mancini has been on the job for more than three years, and his familiarity with his personnel – and with what is being asked of them – shines through.
The four-match knockout round assures some major randomness in the final stages of the tournament, and with not much on the line for both sides after the third group match against Wales, only one miss to knock them out of the tournament. Might be possible. But they are only as likely as anyone can score.
So far France and England are playing to their respective strengths
England's Euro roster includes Harry Kane of Tottenham Hotspur, Phil Foden and Raheem Sterling of Manchester City, Jadon Sancho and Jude Bellingham of Borussia Dortmund, Jack Grealish of Aston Villa, Marcus Rashford of Manchester United, Dominic Calvert-Lewin of Everton and Arsenal. Including Bukayo Saka. This is perhaps the deepest and most exciting collection of attacking talent in the tournament.
Fact: If England doesn't have the best attacking talent, France has - Paris Saint-Germain's Kylian Mbappe, Barcelona's Antoine Griezmann and Ousmane Dembele, Real Madrid's Karim Benzema, Bayern's Kingsley coman, Chelsea's Olivier Giroud, Borussia Monchengladbach's Marcus Thuram Wissam Ben Yedder in midfield, as well as Manchester United's Paul Pogba.
And yet, England and France together have scored eight goals in four matches so far. Opponents: Even eight.
Not that Didier Deschamps and Gareth Southgate are doing anything wrong, of course. Neither Deschamps' France nor Southgate's England have lost a match, and both are almost certain to advance to the Round of 16. You don't have to show your hand when you're overtaken by talent like these two teams on the collective stage. (You also have to make tough decisions about who will see the pitch and what doesn't, because you obviously can't give each attacker 90 minutes.) France won the World Cup with Deschamps three years ago, after all.
but.
We are learning a lot about the concept of margin for error in Euros. Mancini's Italy has made 11 shots on a goal of their opponents. Belgium and the Netherlands have each allowed six - semi-hazardous - but have made nine and 11 respectively. But unlike Italy, neither France nor England are playing in such a way that their biggest matchup advantages give them, well, advantages.
England scored fewer goals than Scotland in a scoreless draw on Friday. France attempted 15 shots against Hungary in Saturday's 1–1 draw, but only got four, and their only goal was not the product of a brilliant buildup and decisive play. It was goalkeeper Hugo Lloris's Route One bomb that found Mbappe and eventually made his way into the net through Griezmann's boot.
Again, things are technically fine, but even as both squads make their way into the tournament and slowly find their attacking form, something particularly egregious stands out: in a year in which so many people have lost their lives. Having played the most minutes of their respective careers, five substitutions can be vital to work with and provide deep teams with added advantage. In France's win over Germany, Deschamps inserted two subs (for Dembele and midfielder Corentin Tolisso) for a combined two minutes. Against Hungary, he sub Dembele for a solid 30 minutes, but three other subs (Giroud, Tolisso, Thomas Lemar) played a combined 31 minutes.
Southgate has been even more conservative and disappointing in his replacement. He made only three changes for a combined 28 minutes of action against Croatia, and only two subscriptions for 43 minutes in the Scotland stalemate. Grealish played 27 minutes, Bellingham just eight minutes. One of the most exciting and creative players in the world, Sancho has yet to see the pitch. Dual defensive midfielders Declan Rice and kalvin Phillips have played every minute so far, and England are not really allowed a goal yet. But he too has scored only one.
Southgate is both draining the gas tanks of his first-choice players and almost openly avoiding creativity in the attack. None of these things are good.
Every front-runner has more questions in the back than in the front
What makes Italy, France and England's different approaches particularly interesting, perhaps aside from Spain, is that each of the tournament's eight primary favorites is far deeper and more stable in attacking positions than on defence.
Italy are riding Bonucci and Chiellini to the centre-back as far as possible. The Belgian still relies on 34-year-old Jan Vertonghen and 32-year-old Toby Alderweireld. Germany had to ask 32-year-old Mats Hummels to come back from "relegation" to stabilize his back (with mixed results). Portugal still need Pepe, 38, next to Ruben Dias (and is playing without star full-back Joao Cancello, who tested positive for COVID-19 and had to withdraw from the team).
The Netherlands still needs the 31-year-old Daly Blind. England can't (and isn't really trying) give all their attackers some time to play, while playing Tyrone Mings and John Stones as Harry Maguire works back to full fitness. Meanwhile, France have solid (though unintended) Presnel Kimpembe and Raphael Varane.
Compared to the attacking brilliance virtually all of these teams claim, the defense is a relative weakness, a fact that was certainly supported repeatedly in Germany's 4-2 win over Portugal on Saturday.
In the second of Group F's three heavyweight-versus-heavyweight matchups, Germany played on the front foot (as Germany is usually accustomed to do so), and while Portugal pulled up some promising counter-attack opportunities, they had Some long runs were also captured in the attack. Countering Germany's high and shaky back line, Portugal advanced, then Germany advanced Portugal's defense by consistently pulling aside and sending tense balls into the box. Portugal's Cristiano Ronaldo and Diogo Jota combined for two goals and two assists, while Germany's Robin Gosens and Kai Havertz combined for two and three. It was an open, mostly optimistic ball, and it produced a high level of entertainment.
Aesthetically, it was a lot more fun to watch than England vs Scotland, but which style is right for success? Who is more likely to advance in the tournament: an offensive team like Italy, Germany, Belgium or the Netherlands, playing to their strengths but exposing their obvious weaknesses? Or is a highly conservative team, such as France or England, squeezing their strength and limiting their margins for error in the name of protecting their defense?
Historically, you could say that the latter is still the way to go, especially in the single-elimination knockout stage, but Germany reminded us on Saturday that they are dangerous enough to open any defense.
A Check on the Underdog and Hipster Pick
Moving into the tournament, it was basically the top eight and the rest – France, England, Belgium, Germany, Spain, Portugal, Italy and the Netherlands all had +450 (equivalent to 18%) and +1200 (8%). There was a possibility of betting between ) per Kaiser, and all the rest were at +2800 (3%) or higher. Not surprisingly, not much has changed. Per SPI, the eight favorites currently have a combined 78% chance of lifting the trophy. But it still gives some other people a fighting chance. The current top five dark horses out of these eight:
• Austria (4.7%): My hipster pick before the tournament, the Das team, has gone all-out in one match (3-1 easy win over North Macedonia) and to pieces in another (2-0) Losing from the Netherlands, who were producing the Dutch with quality opportunities, could have been much worse). They are likely to qualify for the knockout rounds, and while they are unlikely to win four in a row from there, that's what makes them a dark horse.
• Denmark (4.5%): In his first two matches, the Dane has attempted 43 shots to seven of his opponents, and while many shots are low-quality, he still made 3.86 xG against opponents' 1.33 is. And they've lost twice. That's bad luck, but if they beat Russia, they'll still be well positioned to advance, and if expected goals turn into real goals, this popular pre-tournament dark horse pick will still be a good one. Can score runs.
• Switzerland (3.2%): He beat Wales significantly, dominated the ball, taking 18 shots in Wales' nine and generating 1.79 xG allowing 0.51. The 1-1 draw was not justice. Their 3-0 loss to Italy? Justice. So put them in the same range as Austria - higher upside, less negative.
• Sweden (1.9%): You have to give them: Sweden has an identity. They want nothing to do with the ball - they had 16% against Spain and 42% against Slovakia. They just want to defend an old-school 4-4-2, quickly get the ball out of their end and hope that Real Sociedad's Alexander Isak, RB Leipzig's Emil Forsberg or Krasnodar's Marcus Berg are limited. Make very good use of attack opportunities. . It is working till now.
• Ukraine (1.6%): Obviously, Ukraine put far more pressure and control of the ball in their 2–1 win over North Macedonia, rather than a 3–2 loss at the hands of the Netherlands. But in both matches, he pushed opponents from edge to edge, created high-quality (if sometimes rare) scoring opportunities and, through Andrey Yarmolenko and Roman Yaremchuk, converted those opportunities at a high rate. There are worse recipes!
Meet future Premier League striker Roman Yaremchuk
As a general rule, "post insane scoring numbers in a low league and play well for club and country in European competitions" is a slam dunk combination to notice itself. This doesn't guarantee you'll thrive in a top league, but it does keep you on the fast track to getting there.
Then check out Roman Yaremchuk of Ukraine, check and check.
- Post insane numbers in a lesser league: After scoring 17 times at around 0.32 goals per 90 minutes in his first two seasons at Gent, Belgium, Yaremchuk improved to 10 goals in 18 matches in 2019-20 (0.60 per 90), then 17 in 28 in 2020-21 (0.64). He also posted a career-high six assist.
- Played well for the club in Europe: in seven matches in the Champions League and Europa League last year, he scored twice (0.37 per 90) with six chances (1.11 per 90). Not spectacular, but solid.
- Play well for Country in Europe: Big Time. Over the past two years, he has scored for Ukraine in World Cup qualification, Euro qualification and UEFA Nations League, and has now scored twice in Euros. First, he sent in a game-tying header on a late set-piece against the Netherlands; Then, he ran a perfectly timed run in space against North Macedonia before hitting the ball well home for a game-cleaning score.
result? Premier League Transfer Rumors! West Ham United, which already employ Yaremchuk's experienced countryman Andrey Yarmolenko, are clearly taking a long look. It makes perfect sense. ESPN's Soccer Power Index gives Ukraine a 95% chance of reaching the Round of 16, so Yaremchuk's performance could last a little longer. Another two goals, and even more clubs may be involved.
(Note: Similar form could see you bumping from a solid European club to an even bigger club, as Czech Republic's Patrick Schick may soon learn. He scored nine goals in his first season with Bayer Leverkusen, and He has already scored three times. -- including an amazing 50-yard goal against Scotland -- in the Euros. "Big-club panic bid" written around it.)
It's Good to See Gareth Bale's Old Man Game
THAT ASSIST FROM GARETH BALE 😍
Gareth Bale confirmed his status as one of the world's best players on Nov. 2, 2010. Playing for Tottenham against Inter Milan in the Champions League, he ran around, past and through Maicon, one of the world's best right-backs at the time, on the way to a hat trick. His combination of physical prowess and technical skill was jarring. He had slowly transformed from full-back to attacker, and he would score 26 goals for Spurs in 2012-13 before moving on to Real Madrid for nearly €100 million.
WALES LEAD! pic.twitter.com/pwEQ80YvE4
Even with a steady stream of injuries, he scored at least 17 goals in all competitions four times for the "super club" and contributed to three Champions League title runs.
Sadly, injuries have caught up to him. Nearly 11 years since his dissection of Maicon, he's lost much of the pace that once defined him. He fell out of favor in Madrid, barely playing 1,000 league minutes in 2019-20; he got loaned back to Spurs this season, but played only 923 minutes.
In those 923 minutes, however, he scored 11 goals and created 21 chances. On a per-minute basis, he averaged 1.27 goals and assists per 90 for Spurs. He had averaged only 0.77 during his dynamic 2012-13 season! And in 180 minutes in the Euros, Bale has already contributed two assists among five chances created. His second was about as gorgeous as you'll see.
Bale's 1.32 expected assists (xA) in the tournament are second to only Sweden's Alexander Isak's. He still has all of his technical skill, and he has replaced pace with a crafty, all-encompassing Old Man Game. He can, and will, still trick you, wrong-foot you and lob a perfectly weighted pass over you.
We have no idea what Bale's future holds. He has a year left on his Real Madrid contract, but he hasn't been in their plans for a while. Spurs at one point expressed interest in bringing him back to London permanently, but they're too busy cycling through 100 managerial candidates to form a transfer plan. For all we know, Bale could retire to a life of golf. My own personal, aesthetic request is that he land on a team that doesn't press much, plays a more reactive style, plants him in a more central attacking role and allows him to become a master facilitator. When he's healthy, anyway.
Tiki-taka isn't Spain's problem: Opposing goalkeepers are
ESPN's Soccer Power Index thinks highly of Spain at the moment, giving it a rating of 90.3 – the highest of any in Europe. The rationale for this isn't hard to find: they've only lost once since the start of 2019, and they have a good ball, which from a general standpoint generally correlates well with winning matches.
However, their plodding possession means that they alternate between two different types of results: major victories (usually against the world's Lithuania and Kosovo, though sometimes also Germany) and ploding staying organized and tightly defensive. Draws against capable teams. In his 15 matches since the start of 2020, he has scored 10 goals for zero or one, and eight ended in 0-0 or 1-1 draws. If you can't create dangerous situations, the right of everyone in the world doesn't matter, and this has slowed them down dramatically to the euro so far.
In the draws against Sweden (0–0) and Poland (1–1), the Spanish posted obscene possession numbers: they are the only team with over 60% through two matches, and they are at 80.1%. . They are completing 89% of their passes, and you can't just accuse them of hitting the ball over midfield. He has attempted 29 shots (fourth in the tournament) worth 5.7 xG (first). Of that 5.7 xG, 1.1 is believed to have been made in a single exchange against Poland: Gerard Moreno's penalty miss (0.77 xG) and Alvaro Morata's biffed rebound attempt (0.36). But even if you remove that exchange entirely, still placed third in the xG created.
So why are they stuck on one goal? For starters, most of his looks at Target are commuting in traffic. 20 of his 29 shots are defined by StatsPerformance as "medium to high pressure". That's what it costs to play against a pack-in defense. The most dangerous attacks combine possession with aggression in a way that the Spanish team simply does not.
They too have only been victims of great goalkeeping. Against Poland he had five shots on goal, costing 2.1 xGOT (expected goal for shots on target), and Poland's Wojciech Szczeciny saved four of them. He made five shots on goal against Sweden, which cost 1.4 xGOT, and Robin Olsen of Sweden saved all five.
The purpose of the XGOT concept is to measure the quality of shots teams make on goal and to determine what a goalkeeper is actually defending from his or her own net. Spain's quality has been quite high; They have not been so aimless in the possession as they have been stoned. The longer they can advance through this tournament - and the SPI still gives them an X% chance of advancing to the Round of 16 - the more likely those balls will start to find the net.
Let's Be Honest: It's a Good Tournament Format
When it comes to the format of the Euros, I've seen a good amount of gnashing of teeth, with a 36-match group stage eliminating only eight teams before a four-round, 16-team knockout round. Without the higher stakes, more group-stage matches may lack intensity and with such a low bar for third-place teams to qualify from a given group – four would advance from six groups – teams would go through a draw. Might be happy to play for.
Conceptually, that's all true, but in 24 matches so far, we've only seen two non-zero draws (England-Scotland and Spain-Sweden), and in Spain-Sweden, Spain attempted 17 shots and 2.0 xG generated. They certainly weren't playing for a draw.
In the meantime, we've seen the consequences for our share of shocks. According to ESPN Stats & Info, the four biggest betting favorites of the tournament are France (-350 against Hungary), England (-320) against Scotland, Denmark (-310) against Finland and Spain (-300) against Sweden. - have failed to win, instead generating one win and three draws. We have seen a lot of tension and surprises, and while the third stage of the group stage will have some lower-stakes matches with the favourites, the favorites will have a chance to rest, with only one team (North Macedonia) officially eliminated. has gone. Almost everyone has something to play for.
The format has been a plus so far, and it's before we get to the aesthetic value: with more teams playing four matches instead of three, we get more complete stories for lots of teams and players beyond the usual favourites. We'll get to a little more about Ukraine's creativity and Austria's nonstop esoteric drama and Bell's Old Man game's Yaremchuk and Isaac. Slovakia has solid prospects of continuing an astonishing run. There are more stories to follow and more players to know, and if that means fewer stakes overall in the group stage, that's a fair trade in my book.