Now that most of the major moves into 2021 NBA free agency are in the books, what should we expect in 2022?
The once star-studded free-agent class consisting of Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler and perhaps Kawhi Leonard is now led by Zach LaVine and perhaps Bradley Beal.
A Western Conference general manager told ESPN, "Since the next season has better-than-average talent, I'm expecting the business market to be very active during the regular season."
Apart from internal improvement - young players taking a step forward in their growth, consistency and health - the only possibility for a team's roster to improve will be in the trades. The LA Clippers made the jump that Monday when they acquired Eric Bledsoe from the Memphis Grizzlies.
With two expiring contracts (Rajon Rondo and Patrick Beverly) going into the next season and no money available to sign replacements, the Clippers owed Bledsoe $19.4 million in 2022–23 (of which Only $3.9 million is guaranteed).
Let's take a look at a preview of the superstars, X-Factor teams, potential surprises, and big questions to see what could be the league-changing transaction period.
How does the 2021 free-agent class compare to 2020?
Teams are already calling 2022 free agency the "children of rotating players."
Of the 191 estimated free agents, only 33 players (13 of whom are banned) can be considered starter-level or better.
Three of those 33 players — James Harden, Kyrie Irving and Russell Westbrook — will probably never see free agency. Harden and Irving are on track to sign a long-term contract extension before the season begins.
"As related to [Irving] and [Harden], we are in discussions with them now," said Brooklyn Nets GM Sean Marks. “There is no immediate rush to do any of this in terms of the first day of free agency. These are opportunities for us to sit down, break bread together, meet [Nets governor] Joe Tsai, and really everyone. same page.
“I am very confident that by the first day of training camp, we will be seeing all three of them, in particular, be signed, sealed and delivered and be part of the Brooklyn Nets for a long time to come.”
Westbrook has a player option worth $44.2 million, but the reality is that his hometown of the Los Angeles Lakers gives him the best shot at winning the championship, allowing the guard to add to his contract for 2022-23. He could also do what Chris Paul did in Phoenix and decline the option to re-sign a long-term contract, but in lesser numbers.
Biel could sign a four-year, $187 million extension with the Wizards starting October 1. If Beale doesn't sign an extension it shouldn't be seen as a sign that he wants to move out of Washington. The All-Star guard is eligible to sign a five-year, $235 million contract with the Wizards next summer.
If Beale is off the market, that leaves Bulls guard LaVine the following year as marquee free agent. LaVine is also expandable, but because an expansion will cost $100 million less than next July's earnings, the All-Star will play the season on an expiring contract.
Below is a list of potential free agents starting with franchise players. Some potentially banned free agents may still sign extensions from their rookie contracts before the start of the season.
Given the lack of depth in these lists, next year's class will include major reserves, rotational players and developmental players.
Franchise: Harden (player) and Beal (player)
All-NBA: Irving (player)
All-Star: LaVine and Westbrook (player)
Top Starter: Kevin Huerter (restricted), Collin Sexton (restricted), Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr. (restricted), Jaren Jackson Jr. (restricted), Jonas Valanciunas, Mikal Bridges (restricted) and Deandre Ayton (restricted)
Starter: Josh Richardson, Robert Williams III (restricted), Miles Bridges (restricted), John Wall, T.J. Warren, Ivica Zubac (team), Kyle Anderson, Victor Oladipo, Donte DiVincenzo (restricted), Mitchell Robinson, Luguentz Dort (team), Wendell Carter Jr. (restricted), Andre Drummond, Robert Covington, Jusuf Nurkic, Marvin Bagley III (restricted), Lonnie Walker IV (restricted), Jalen Brunson, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Daniel Gafford (team)
Should we expect more extensions before the season starts in October?
Durant, Butler, Curry, Joel Embiid, Julius Randall, Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier, Luka Doncic, Trey Young and Shai Gilgius-Alexander all signed long-term extensions this season.
Smart, Rozier and Randall made smart plays to take the now guaranteed money and not risk potential injury and the limited market to test free agency.
In addition to Irving and Harden, other veterans who could sign expansions this season include Richardson, Gordon, Jalen Brunson, Tyce Jones and Robinson (2018 second-round picks, the first to agree to an extension). are not subject to a time limit for round picks) ) Since all these players are in the final year of their contracts, no deadline has been set before the start of the season.
Last year, six former first-round picks signed rookie extensions just before the start of the season.
Only Doncic, Young and Gilgius-Alexander have agreed to the extension so far, with more deals expected before the October 18 deadline.
Is there a position of strength?
Despite the lack of headliners like Paul, Mike Connelly, Kyle Lowry and Lonzo Ball in the 2021 class, point guards are expected to be in a position of strength once again.
Even though Irving and Westbrook are not free agents, the point guard group includes quality players such as Beverly, Brunson, Jones, Dennis Schröder, Patty Mills (if he declines his option), Ricky Rubio, Goran Dragic and Tomas Satoranski. .
If Beale joins LaVine as a free agent and Oladipo can regain his health, the top three available unrestricted free agents will all be on shooting guard.
What theme should we keep an eye on?
No team has signed a banned free agent on the offer sheet this off-season, but that is likely to change next year. While cap growth is projected to be limited (more on that below), expect front offices to take an aggressive approach with restricted free agents.
We originally named the 2018 rookie class a $1.2 billion club based on the amount of potential money earned in an expansion. However, during the first three weeks of free agency, only three players – Doncic, Young and Gilgius-Alexander – have signed on to extensions.
While we are still two months away from the October 18 extension deadline, next year the market could be flooded with restricted free agents, who were drafted in the first round in 2018. Former second-round picks Terrence Mann and Gafford are likely to see their team's options decline, which would also make them a banned free agent.
How many teams are estimated for the cap space?
Despite a $7 million increase in the salary range from $112 million to $119 million, ESPN is projecting only three teams to hold the cap space. The Detroit Pistons, Orlando Magic and San Antonio Spurs are expected to have at least $30 million in the room. For comparison, five teams had cap space this season and four in 2020.
A few more notes on cap space:
Most recently Smart Extensions has removed Boston from the cap space in 2022. The Celtics will need to take a number of steps, including abandoning Smart, Williams, Richardson and leaving Al Horford to make the most of the pay slot.
In the event that LaVine does not re-sign, Chicago would have $20 million in cap space.
The Cavaliers could have $30 million in cap space if a buyout for Kevin Love goes through and Sexton, a banned free agent, isn't re-signed.
The Grizzlies could keep Jackson's free-agent hold and still have up to $23 million in cap space. However, Jones and Anderson would need to be discarded.
The Pelicans may have $20 million in the room but at the expense of Valenciunas, the team's estimated starting center.
The Trail Blazers have eight free agents, but will not have cap space due to the $93 million committed to Damien Lillard, CJ McCallum and Norman Powell.
For the Kings to make $22 million in cap space, they would have to let Bagley, the former No. 2 overall pick, walk.
The Bulls and Wizards proved this offseason with sign-and-trade deals for Ball, DeMar DeRozan, and Spencer Dinwiddie that there are other resources to improve your team outside the cap space. Since the 2019 offseason, 25 players have been acquired in sign-and-trades.
Will the luxury tax and hard cap impact teams' spending?
Yes but in a positive way.
Despite only three teams being estimated to have cap space, an increase in the luxury tax ($136.6 to $145 million) and hard cap ($143 million to $151.6 million) allowed teams to use up their $10.1 million of non-cap space. A more aggressive approach should be adopted. Taxpayer middle tier exception.
For example, only four of the 18 teams (Chicago, Dallas, Miami and Toronto) spent more than $5.9 million this season with the exception of their mid-level of $9.5 million. The Timberwolves had the full amount available, but signing a free agent would have put them in the luxury tax, resulting in only a 3% increase in the tax limit.
Should we expect the Nets, Warriors, Bucks, Jazz, Heat and Lakers to compete for equal free agents?
That group of six teams, all of whom consider themselves top contenders, will enter the next season with more than $860 million in committed salaries. As a result, each team will be pitching free agents with a chance of winning a championship, but only the taxpayer mid-level and veterans with minimal exceptions are available.
The Lakers have $145 million in committed salaries (including Westbrook's option), the lowest of the four teams. However, because they will only have five players under contract, they will once again be limited to exceptions to the minimum veterans and mid-level tax of $6.2 million.
Brooklyn, Utah and Milwaukee have a slight advantage in maintaining their own free agents (Blake Griffin, Bruce Brown, Joe Ingalls and Bobby Portis) and paying above each exception. Brown and Ingalls have full bird rights (the ability to exceed the cap), and Griffin and Portis will set up early bird rights (starting salary of $10.9 million).
We could have included the Clippers in this group, but since they have 13 players under contract in 2022-23, their focus will be on roster consistency and how they improve.
Is there an under-the-radar signing this off-season that will affect next July?
Keep an eye on Oladipo in Miami.
Oladipo, who signed this off-season, has barely attracted attention as the former All-Star is recovering from surgery to repair his right quadriceps tendon and is not expected to contribute on the court in the early part of the season.
However, according to Dr. Jonathan Glasow, an Oladipo return may be coming soon.
"I repaired the quad tendon and made it a little different than before," Glaslow told ESPN. "The quad wasn't really attached. It was torn, and I reattached it. I was surprised that he was playing with what he had. I'm very optimistic that I can clean him up in six months to November." I think he'll play really well again. ... [the surgery] went very well, and it's recovering beautifully. I'm sure he'll play next year."
If Oladipo does return, it will give the Heat a powerful lineup that already includes Lowry, Butler and Bam Adebayo.
More importantly, the Heat retain Bird rights over Oladipo and could cross the cap to sign a new contract next season.
Are there any players who are worthy of the Supermax?
Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic is eligible to be signed to a five-year, $254 million Supermax extension next season even if he doesn't make the All-NBA team in 2021-22. Jokic met the criteria when he was named MVP and received All-NBA honors in back-to-back seasons. The expansion would be the largest contract in NBA history.
When it comes to Supermax three other names to keep an eye on are LaVine, Karl-Anthony Towns and Devin Booker.
Although LaVine was drafted by Minnesota, he is eligible to sign a five-year, $235 million Supermax extension with the Bulls if he wanted to earn an All-NBA this season, as he was traded from Minnesota to Chicago. while was still on his rookie scale. Contract.
Towns and Booker have two remaining seasons (2022–23 and 2023–24) on their contracts with the Timberwolves and Sons respectively. If either player earns All-NBA, he will be eligible to sign with his team on a four-year, $206 million extension.
Beale is eligible to sign a five-year, $235 million contract to remain with the Wizards, even if he doesn't earn the All-NBA. By next season, Beale will have reached 10 years of service, making him eligible to sign a contract worth 35% of the 2022–23 salary cap.
What About 2022 Rookie-Extension Candidates?
A lot is expected to be heard about Zion Williamson's future, especially if the Pelicans fail to reach the playoffs, or at least the play-in tournaments. In that scenario Williamson would enter the final year of his rookie-scale contract without ever appearing in the postseason.
Despite the scenario of doom and gloom, no player has ever turned down a five-year rookie Max extension. The closest was when Kristaps Porzingis forced a move from New York to Dallas in January 2018.
The maximum five-year maximum for rookies in the 2019 Draft class, including Williamson and 2019-20 Rookie of the Year winner Jay Morant, is $181 million. The total contract value could increase to $217 million if the player is named to an All-NBA team.
Other notable extension candidates for the 2019 draft include RJ Barrett, Tyler Herro, Mattis Thiebull, Keldon Johnson, Darius Garland, Cam Radish and D'Andre Hunter.
Which team should we keep an eye on?
The Hawks won't have a cap space, but that won't discourage GM Travis Schlenk from adding to his roster in the future.
"I still think when you look at the depth of our roster and the young talent we have, we don't have the draft assets like we used to, but now we have people under contract that you can do some matches. . Big pay," Schlenk told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "I think last year put us back on the map of the NBA as a destination. People who want to do business, they want to go somewhere they think they can win. And I think now That assumption about us is out because we have a young core that has shown success in the playoffs. So the expectation would be that when a star player asks to trade, we will be one of those destinations ready to come Will happen."
The Hawks have pledged $300 million in contracts to Young and John Collins this off-season and have still decided to extend with Heuter before October 18.
If the Hawks were to make a move to a superstar, it would likely cost them at least one and potentially both of their top-10s from the 2019 draft (Hunter and Radish).