It only takes a week for the optimism fans about going forward in the 2021 season to shake off their NFL teams. The Bills, Packers, and Titans all came into the campaign with hopes of riding their prime offenses to Super Bowl LVI. As three of the league's top four scoring offenses a season ago, he averaged around 94 points per week in 2020. Those three teams scored a combined 32 points during their Week 1 loss. It shouldn't have been in the cards.
What happened in week 1 is in the books. Every team deals with the blip, and if those three offenses had a bad day, no one will remember it a few weeks from now. If it wasn't just a bad day, though, our preseason expectations for these former playoff teams may have to change.
Let's take a look at what happened to these three teams in their first matches of the season to know if there should be any worries after their poor start. It's too early to fundamentally change your expectations about what they might do in 2021, but it's never too early to look at things in the coming weeks for potential concerns. I'd start with the team I was most concerned about and work up to the team that seemed least worrying:
It was supposed to be a celebration! In their home opener, Titans were welcoming franchise left tackle Taylor Levan as he missed a torn right ACL in 2020. Even more excitingly, the Titans eventually had to feature off-season extra Julio Jones, playing without a Falcons jersey for the first time since 2010. Facing the Cardinals team with one of the least impressive cornerback depth charts in the league, almost everyone expected to see the shootout in Nashville.
Well, the Cardinals ended the deal. The Titans were a disaster on offense, and their big names were partly to blame. Levan was unable to stop Chandler Jones from picking up some of his five sacks. Returning to the field in the second half, Levan was furious and tweeted, "I let the team and fans down," after the game ended. Jones finished with 29 receiving yards on six goals; His most notable contribution was an unnecessary roughness penalty that turned third and -1 into third and -16. Tennessee's first fall in the opening quarter came on a fake punt.
My biggest concern, though, may be a third major debutant for this offense: new coordinator Todd Downing, who spent the past two seasons as Tennessee's tight end coach and was promoted to the job after Arthur Smith moved to Atlanta. Downing previously served as the Raiders' offensive coordinator for a year in the 2017 season, which was disappointing for everyone involved. Notably, he avoided play-action during his run as the Raiders' playcaller. In 2017 the league ran play-action at a 20.8% dropback overall. The Downing Raiders made use of the play-action only 7.8% of the time, the lowest rate in the league that season.
As you know, the Titans rebounded their passing attack and headed in the opposite direction to get career-best numbers from Ryan Tanhill. In the last two seasons with Smith as his offensive coordinator, he used play-action on 32.8% of his dropbacks, the highest rate in football. Tanhill finished with play throws, leading the league in yards per attempt (11.0) and QBR (84.6) of play-action between 2019 and 2020. He was ranked 11th in the league in both categories, with no play mock attached.
You can probably guess where this is going! In Week 1, Tannehill retreated 43 times. Of those 43 attempts, only five included any form of play-action, clocking in at a good 11.6%. In part due to the play-action rate and perhaps the fact that he was wearing Chandler Jones on his back for most of the day, Tanhill posted a 19.1 QBR in a loss to Arizona, the third-worst QBR of the week.
Now, conservatives can point out that the Titans might not have gone to play because their ongoing game was an issue. It is true that Derrick Henry was not his normal self, as an injured back converted his 17 carries to just 58 rushing yards and two first downs. Studies have shown, however, that teams do not need to be successful in setting up runs or running a football for the play-action to work.
Even if this was true, the Titans "established" that Henry is a devastating threat two years ago with the ball in his hands. No linebacker would ignore his run key as Henry did not average 6.0 yards per carry. Take last season, when the Bills held Henry for 57 yards on 19 rush attempts. Tanhill was still going 7-for-10 for 75 yards with a touchdown from the play-action in the Tennessee win.
A more reasonable argument might involve Chandler Jones. If the Titans weren't able to defend Tannehill, the five- and seven-stage drops needed would be needed to keep him out of the play-action and give receivers a chance to work downfield. If I were Tannehill, I'd want to work up a quick game and get the ball out of my hands before helping Jones make history as well.
Of course, there's a solution too: maximum security! Jones and JJ to Titans Watt with five linemen. If anything, defending maximum play-action would keep Jones and A.J. Byron Murphy, Robert Alford and Marco Wilson against the Browns. Titans defended with seven or more blockers all three times. One produced an unfinished pass that was tipped over the line, but the other two included a 10-yard completion and a 39-yard catch on a flea-flicker game by Chester Rogers, for whom the slightly better Tannehill pass was one. Produces long touchdowns. .
Unlike the Titans, there's no smoking gun to point to Buffalo's disappointing performance. The Bills were more dominant on offense and faced a much tougher defense in the Steelers, who excelled during their comeback victory. What's comforting for the Bills is that they won't have to face the Steelers again before a potential rematch after the season. The only place Buffalo fans can find T.J. Watt is in his nightmare for the next few months.
Watt and the rest of Pittsburgh had a great day. Importantly, the Steelers changed their game plan from last year's loss at Buffalo and found greater success in doing so. In 2020, the Steelers used their blitz to put pressure on Josh Allen, sending an extra rusher more than 54% of the time. Showing the pressure, Allen finished under pressure about 43% of the time, but the Bills did enough downfield as the game went on to take the pressure off.
This time, the Steelers smashed Allen once in 55 dropbacks. As you might suspect, this is the lowest blitz rate he has posted in a game since Mike Tomlin took over as coach in 2007. Despite keeping defenders at home, Pittsburgh was still able to pressure Allen about 31% of the time, a remarkable rate for a team that wasn't sending extra rushes. It was just the sixth game since 2009 in which a team did not score more than 3% of the time and still managed to hit a 30% pressure rate.
Its pass-rushers did so. Watt and Cameron Hayward were arguably the two best players on the field. I'd also suggest that Buffalo's linemen think they should have had a better day. Both tackles clashed, with right tackle Daryl Williams having a particularly painful day against Watts. The Steelers took Watts around the formation for a few snaps, but he usually took advantage of the right side. Watt forced a fumble on Allen's scuffle and added a sack as he spent most of the day at the Buffalo backfield. Their Week 1 performance should be the primary argument of the NFL Players Association whenever the league suggests that players need training camps and preseasons to prepare for actual football.
The Steelers also changed how they used one of their other young stars. Minka Fitzpatrick usually had a slot corner with dolphins; But when Pittsburgh traded a 2020 first-round pick to get him in Miami in 2019, the Steelers moved him to free safety, where he excelled. Fitzpatrick lined up deep against the Bills for most of his snaps in 2020, but see how the snaps he had from Sunday's competition changed via graphics from the NFL's Next Gen Stats:
So, did the Steelers reveal a blueprint for closing one of the most explosive offenses of 2020? If you have Watt and Hayward, the answer is yes. Otherwise, I don't think there is a new solution here. Every team that watched Super Bowl LV saw the Bucs close the majors with their front four, but even the Browns team with Miles Garrett and Jadevon Clooney had a similar performance on Sunday. was not enough. There are small things to note around for the Bills, but their biggest problem in Week 1 was facing a major defense.
The most shocking result of the week was Jamis Winston and the Saints blowing up the Packers by 35 points in Jacksonville. I'll leave out the possibility of an Aaron Rodgers Florida curse and only mention that it was one of the worst games of Rodgers' career. The 13.4 QBR he posted was his fifth worst in his 191 regular-season debut, and it could drop even further as opponent adjustments change the way we look at our Saints' defense. He threw two interceptions after throwing five last season.
I'm not too concerned about Rodgers' subpar game, as we don't have to go far back to find similar performances. The worst start to his career came about 11 months ago, when he posted a 9.5 QBR in a loss to the Buccaneers. After going 10-0 up, Rodgers threw a pick-six to Jamel Dean and another interception on his subsequent drive. The Books, coming out of a game in which they lost to the Bears as Tom Brady dropped out of the Downs, ran 38 consecutive points to defeat the Packers. Of course, Rodgers was so infuriated by the poor game that he won the league MVP.
I don't see anything about how Rodgers played on Sunday. Mesh came upon an interception, a concept the Packers run every single week, where he was hit as he threw and found nothing on a short-armed pass attempt. The second was an arm punt at third down in which he dodged the ball 52 yards in the air. Neither throw was what he intended to make, but it was not such that he could not complete the pass or receive the ball a second time. It wasn't his most accurate play, as 33.3% of his passes were classified as off-target, tied for the third-highest in his career, but I was before I could meaningfully worry about his accuracy. I want to see a bigger sample. .
The offensive line is a concern as left tackle David Bakhtiari is on injured reserve, but it wasn't like Rogers was regularly troubled on Sunday. The Saints pressured 13.3% of her dropbacks, one of the lowest rates of Week 1. The future Hall of Famer was sacked once and was knocked out four times over 30 dropbacks, so he wasn't going to pocket it. . The Saints did an excellent job of covering the Green Bay receivers, but these were the same players who had no trouble opening a year ago, and I don't think they've suddenly lost their ability to be a collective. Huh. The people on the other side of the field were there for a reason.
The crime of the saints also deserves credit for shutting down their counterparts. For most of the first half, Rodgers and Co. were not on the field in a way that the other teams would struggle to replicate. The Packers made just 17 plays in the first half, the fewest of any team in the first week. It was the second lowest for any team in any first half in 2020, and the fewest they scored in the first half. Rodgers starts 2012. Week 1 had only eight drives consisting of 15 or more plays, and the Saints had two of them back-to-back in the second quarter.
The Packers may not have a world-class defense if Rodgers can't score if he's not on the field, but I don't have many reasons to think that will continue to be a problem. The Saints converted 50% of their third downs and went 2-for-2 on their fourth downs, including a -7 conversion. A terrifying roughness of a passer-by call on Za'Darius Smith cost the defense an interception at the end of the third quarter. Green Bay finished the game with nine possessions, but backup quarterback Jordan Love came in for the final two drives of the day. Rodgers will not have another game throughout the season with just seven chances to score.
In so many ways, the formula for what drove the 2020 Packers was broken down in just week 1. The same team that got the ball rolling at league-low 11 times last season had three giveaways in the season opener. The best red zone offense in modern history went scoreless on its two trips to inside 20s. (The second unit led by Love was the giveaway and responsible for one of the other red zones.) After converting 49.4% of their third downs in a year before that, the Packers went 0-for-7 on third downs while Rodgers went 0-for-7 on third downs. were in the game.
While it's reasonable to expect some regression towards Mean in the third down and red zone for these Packers, the game against the Saints turned Mean past Mean and the league's worst offense for the first week in 2020. made like. of 2021. They're not "owed" to be terrible, and they didn't suddenly forget to play football. I suspect they will look very different against the Lions on Monday night. If they are equally bad in Week 2 against one of the league's worst defenses, it will be time to stop resting and start worrying.